Bangladesh joins the world in hailing 2026 with cautious expectations of a socioeconomic resurgence, as 2025 draws to a close amid historic political developments and unresolved economic strains.
The passing of former prime minister and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia cast a long shadow over the year, yet the announcement of election schedule and the homecoming of BNP's acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, reshape the country's political landscape.
Juxtaposed together, these events have made the upcoming February polls a single-most consequential moment for Bangladesh's democratic trajectory and economic outlook.
Political analysts and economists agree the credibility and acceptance of the first post-uprising election will determine whether the country enters a period of stability or slides back into uncertainty.
"The biggest and most historic event will be the February election, and everything depends on it," says Dr Zahid Hussain, an independent economist, who had previously served the World Bank.
"If it is accepted by all participating parties, the democratic journey will begin. If not, the opportunity could be lost."
A smooth political transition, the analysts argue, would provide long-awaited certainty to investors and restore confidence in state institutions wrecked by years of political polarisation done by the "fascist" Awami League-led government, toppled through student-mass uprising.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Bangladesh steps in 2026 with a mixed balance sheet, offering, perhaps, no unmixed blessing.
On the external front, conditions have improved to some extent.
Foreign-exchange reserves have stabilised, remittance inflows reached record levels and pressure on the balance of payments has eased, offering a stronger platform for the next elected government.
"I know the external sector -- for example, reserves and balance of payments -- is now in a favourable position, and this is a good foundation for the next government," Dr Hussain notes.
However, the internal economy remains under strain.
Inflation has stayed stubbornly high, eroding purchasing power, growth slowed while private investment has failed to recover meaningfully.
Employment generation has also remained sluggish, particularly in urban areas, adding to social pressures.
"There has been a drought in investment in the country for several years now," Dr Hussain goes on. "It may pick up once a credible, elected democratic government assumes power."
Economists also warn that without renewed investor confidence and policy predictability, growth could remain stymied below potential despite external stability.
The next administration will also inherit a stack of reform proposals prepared by many commissions set up in recent years by the interim government.
Analysts say translating those reports into action will be a critical test of political will.
"The next government will get a series of commission reports," Dr Hussain mentions. "It should prioritise these to strengthen governance and institutions."
Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, echoes the emphasis on political legitimacy, saying that the election would shape the country's reform prospects.
"There is a huge opportunity, and everything depends on the election," he says. "If it fails, the opportunity will be missed."
He mentions that tensions in the financial sector, particularly in banking, have eased to some extent over the past year, but deep-rooted vulnerabilities remain.
"Banks, non-banks and the insurance sector still need much stronger governance," Dr Masrur recommends, citing weak supervision, rising non-performing loans and persistent confidence gaps.
From the business community, expectations are similarly tied to political stability.
Abul Kasem Khan, chairman of BUILD -- Business Initiative Leading Development -- says businesses are hoping for a credible election followed by decisive reforms.
"We hope the next elected government will take reform steps and expedite business activities."
He stresses the need for faster public services through digital platforms, along with reforms in licensing and taxation to make administration more business-friendly.
Logistics and port inefficiencies remain major bottlenecks, he points out, despite reform initiatives taken by the interim government.
"There is scope for much more reform to make domestic trade efficient," Mr Khan told The Financial Express, urging the next government to fast-track the long-delayed Bay Terminal project in Chattogram, which he argues is a major opportunity for the economy.
jasimharoon@yahoo.com