Poor gas supply may frustrate govt plan to generate extra electricity

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M Azizur Rahman
The government's aim to generate 5,875 megawatt (MW) of additional electricity by next five years (2007-2012) to address a chronic electricity supply shortfall seems a forlorn possibility in a state of poor gas supply.
Sources said in its plan to improve electricity supply the Power Division has targeted to install a total of 26 new power plants over the next five-year period, of which 25 are gas-fired and only one hydropower.
But to help the Power Division achieve the target the Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD) will require to almost doubling the existing gas supply to feed power plants.
"This seems almost impossible," a senior EMRD official said.
He said the EMRD must have to raise supply of natural gas at least by 1,400 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to 3,050 mmcfd to ensure supply of electricity at the targeted level. Currently, the country produces around 1,650 mmcfd of gas.
But, under the existing plan, the EMRD has no arrangement to augment the supply of natural gas to that level.
According to the EMRD's existing work schedule, it has no plan for gas exploration or production activities beyond 2010. However, by this period it has a target to raise the supply of gas to a total 2400 mmcfd, up by 750 mmcfd from the current level, to meet needs of consumers including power plants, fertiliser factories, industries, commercial establishments and homes.
The EMRD's gas production target will still fall short by 650 mmcfd if it wants to meet the requirement of only the power plants.
The overall gas supply situation across the country is, however, worsening due to the decline in production of a number of gas fields.
Currently, gas supply from Bangladesh Gas Fields Company Ltd (BGFCL) operated Titas gas field, Cairn operated Sangu gas field and Niko operated Feni gas field is falling alarmingly, a senior Petrobangla official said.
To avoid a supply shortfall the EMRD is now desperately looking for exploration of gas, as the country's gas reserve will be emptied by 2015 if no new gas fields are developed or drilled.
It has already projected that the country will need a further 24 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas and investment worth US $ 7.7 billion over the next 18 years up to 2025 to achieve a moderate annual economic growth at seven per cent.
The country's proven reserve of 8.39 TCF gas is set to exhaust by 2011. If proven and probable reserves of around 14.4 TCF are taken into account, the country's gas stock will be exhausted by 2015.
EMRD secretary AMM Nasiruddin recently told the FE that his organisation had still no idea about how the increased requirement of gas for generation of electricity would be met.
A senior Power Division official said of the power plants planned for installation over the next five years 17 will be set up by the public sector, eight by the private sector and one under private-public partnership.
The public sector plants will generate a total of 3,375 MW, while the private sector will produce 2,500 MW using gas.