Promises galore under probing eyes

FE Team | Published: December 19, 2008 00:00:00 | Updated: February 01, 2018 00:00:00

Shamsul Huq Zahid
Politicians in this part of the world have a habit of promising moon before elections. But once elected, what they deliver falls far short of the voters' expectation.
Every political party, as a matter of election ritual, comes out with a manifesto, which, in fact, is the compilation of scores of promises covering areas such as politics, economy, social issues, governance, technology and environment.
The big and not-so-big political parties in Bangladesh before the elections held earlier, particularly since the year 1991, have unveiled their individual manifestos. But those, except for a few mentions in the media, could not evoke much interest among the voters. This time, however, the situation is different. The events and issues which came into national focus following the 1/11 changeover have made all that difference. Hence, the manifestos of the two arch political rivals - the Awami League (AL) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) - have received wider attention both from the media, members of the civil society and the enlightened sections of the society.
Many of them are now probing through the two manifestos to know how well the two major parties have tried to address the all important issues of corruption, poverty reduction and economy. Some even have tried to draw a comparison between the two.
Understandably, both the parties have promised to tame the price-pressure and rein in corruption, the most discussed issue since the incumbent caretaker government, backed by the armed forces, came to power. There is no denying that whichever party emerges victorious in the upcoming polls would remain under constant public scrutiny as far as the issues of price-control and corruption are concerned.
Both BNP and AL have focused on common economic and infrastructure issues. In some cases, the AL has been more specific, setting time-bound targets. But the BNP's commitments are more of genaralised nature.
One, at the first instance, might feel tempted to give some credit to those who have drafted the AL manifesto for not being vague in economic growth, poverty reduction and power generation projections. But the absence of the necessary explanation about the ways to achieve those and mobilize resources to finance the same would, surely, discourage one from doing so.
The next elected government might not face that much of difficulty to maintain price stability, at least for the next one or two years, mainly because of external reasons. The commodity and fuel oil prices that soared to record highs prior to the global financial meltdown are now sliding almost daily. However, the price-level of most essentials is unlikely to go back to the pre-1/11 level.
The AL in its manifesto, while promising the maintenance of 'equilibrium' between demand and supply of essential commodities, said it would monitor the market effectively and destroy cartels to ease the price situation. However, even the tough-talking caretaker government tried the same without that much of results.
Its rival, BNP, has chosen to be rather generous to help the people generally affected most by the price hike of essentials. It has promised to distribute essential goods free of cost among the distressed and helpless and elderly people. But the manifesto has not mentioned about the ways of mobilizing substantial amount of resources needed to finance such a large welfare-oriented programme.
As far as GDP growth is concerned, the AL has come out with specific figures-8.0 per cent by 2013 and 10 per cent by 2017. All the factors remaining favourable, it would not be that difficult to attain an 8.0 per cent growth by 2013. At least, Bangladesh's track record would bear this out. But the global economic prospects both in short and medium terms and their consequent impact on exports, remittance, foreign aid and investment flows might make things difficult for Bangladesh.
Besides, an 8.0 to 10 per cent growth would necessitate substantial domestic as well as foreign investment. Both the public and private sector investments must go up to a great extent. The private sector investment would largely depend on the developments on the external front. If the major markets of Bangladesh goods come out of the recession soon and the demand for consumer goods goes up there, the private sector investments would go up automatically. But the problem lies with the public sector investment. Compared with the rise in recurrent expenditures, the government's development expenditures have shrunk in recent years. The annual development programmes were trimmed due to poor implementation capacity of the concerned government agencies and non-availability of necessary resources.
The poor implementation of the ADPs was earlier used to be attributed to political interference and abuse of power. But the situation turned worse under the non-political and non-partisan caretaker government. So, raising the capacity of the executing agencies is likely to be a big 'ask' for the next government, if it is really serious about the proper implementation of the ADPs.
Next comes to the fore the issue of resource mobilization. With the current level of tax-GDP ratio and the shrinking foreign aid, it would be hard for the government to put aside a substantial amount for investment in development activities.
The BNP, which has tried to take mileage from the country's economic growth performance between 2001 and 2006, in the manifesto just promised to 'strengthen' the economic growth process and refrained itself from making any projections. Whether it has been done deliberately or not is difficult to say.
Everyone, starting from an industrialist down to a domestic subscriber, has waited eagerly to hear from the two main contenders for power about the power and energy sector.
The AL has been specific about power generation, which is both cost-intensive and time-consuming affair. The party in its manifesto has promised to raise the power production to 5000 megawatt (MW) by 2011 and 7000 MW by 2013.
The first target appears to be not compatible with the GDP growth projection made by the party for the year 2013. The peak demand for power during the summer rises to more than 4500 MW. So, the mere addition of 500 MW of power by 2011 would not anyway help attain the growth targets. It appears that the drafters of the manifesto kept the target on the lower side in view of the difficulty that generally crops up in mobilizing funds for big power plants.
The BNP, which is largely responsible for much of the present-day power-related woes because of political interference and inactions, has promised to formulate a 'transparent and effective' power policy and to take steps for its expeditious implementation.
The actions that have been promised in the manifestos of both AL and BNP with regard to exploitation of gas and coal, two main fuels for power plants, are not enough to satisfy those who are taking brunt of frequent load shedding. Both the parties have been vague in the exploitation of gas and coal. Unless and until new gas discoveries are made and coal reserve at Barapukaria exploited, it would be hard to set up new power plants. The next elected government would have to be both bold and serious in taking right decision in the greater national interest.
Side by side with the strengthening of the ongoing safety net programmes, both AL and BNP promised to initiate effective steps to bring down the poverty rate. Both sides, to take credit, quoted a few statistics on poverty reduction since 1991. But scorecard of the BNP-led alliance government that ruled the country between 2001 and 2006 as far as poverty reduction rate is concerned was better. But the gains have been reversed during last two years because of the abnormal hike in the prices of essential commodities. Thus, the next elected government would have to work hard if it is really serious about bringing down the poverty rate.
As mentioned above, there is no alternative to greater investment, particularly by the private sector, to spurt economic growth, which, in turn, will help generate employment opportunities and reduce poverty. But the private sector people have a lot to complain about. They do very often allege that their cost of doing business is high because of administrative, legal and infrastructural bottlenecks.
The incumbent caretaker government has created a platform, named, the Bangladesh Better Business Forum (BBBF), having representation from both private and public sectors, to address core problems facing the business community. It has also formed the Regulatory Reforms Commission (RRC) to help remove legal obstacles to smooth business operations. Both the parties in their respective manifestos have talked about unhindered growth of the private sector. But they have not said a word about the two entities. Until now both the BBFF and the RRC have not delivered anything tangible. However, they have the potential to pay good dividends in the long run. The next elected government should try to make the best use of both BBBF and RRC.