Government's finance experts are in a fix in finalising the revised budget as they are unable to figure out real revenue mobilisation and its expenditure over the next five months.
This is due to an unrelenting political unrest sweeping across the country, official sources said.
Such inordinate delays in preparation and finalisation of the revised budget, including the Revised Annual Development Programme (RADP), they feel, may affect execution of the development projects earmarked for the current fiscal year.
Apart from making revision of the current one, the authors would also have to craft the next new national budget amid such an ambience of uncertainty before June. The fiscal year (FY) 2014-15 ends on June 30.
Officials familiar with the calculations at the Finance Division said the efforts for revenue mobilisation might be affected but they cannot forecast its magnitude.
The government had squeezed its revenue target in the last fiscal year by Tk 110 billion to Tk 1250 billion following the political turmoil over the polls at the fag-end of 2013.
The officials told the FE that they were really frustrated over the political developments since January 05 as the situation is affecting their preparatory activities.
The official's comments highlight how the political disturbance is creating a sense of anguish among them.
In the meantime, the Finance Division has decided that they would wait until February 15 for finalisation of the key estimations in relation to development expenditure.
They would watch the political developments until February 15 and then give their nod about the reallocations required for the RADP and projects.
After finalisation of a revised budget, the Planning Commission finalises revised annual development programme.
The RADP should have been finalised within January through reallocation of funds for both ongoing and fresh projects under the annual development recipe.
Another Finance Division official said the Planning Commission had been pressing them about the fund arrangement.
A senior official at the Finance Division told the FE: "We've finished meetings with all ministries and divisions about the revised budget and the RADP as per our schedules much earlier."
"But we cannot forecast about the revenue mobilisation in the coming months up to June," he said.
"Similarly," he further said, "we cannot project whether the planned RADP will be implemented or not under the ongoing political turmoil."
The senior official gasped out: "We don't know how long the political programmes will go."
In making revised budgetary calculations the Finance Division relies on the economic data, especially revenue earnings and expenditures, of the first half of the fiscal year, that is, July to December.
The available data in terms of revenue and the expenditure sides of July-December are better than that of its corresponding period in 2013.
"We've data of the revenue collection and expenditure for the July-December period of the current fiscal year -- this is better than that of the last year's first-half figure," the FD official told the FE Sunday.
The last quarter of 2013 (October-December) was politically disturbed, and it had affected the economy. The opposition BNP and its alliance had announced the similar blockade programmes in protest against the January 5 general election they had boycotted.
He said the 'impressive' figures would not work or match with the next six months -- January to June -- as the prolonged blockade and hartals limit the overall economic activities, including slowing down the ADP implementation.
The Finance Division usually doubles its estimation with some additions or subtractions in preparing the revised budget.
"How will we rely on data in relation to revenue and expenditure? The whole of the 2014 calendar year was peaceful," he replied when the FE correspondent asked about the delays in doing the arithmetic of budget revision for the current fiscal year.
On the contrary, the beginning of the Gregorian year and the second half of the fiscal year faced with political disturbance.
"How will we make estimate? Is it possible to guess any figures, especially relating to the revenue collection, in the current situation?
In his final words on the dilemmas the official said they need normalcy. "Otherwise our exercises will be futile."
The RADP had faced inordinate delays last fiscal year, too, following a tussle between the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning over the size of the revised ADP.
The planning ministry wanted the full amount earmarked in the 2013-14 budget. On the other hand, the finance wanted cutbacks on grounds of the political crisis in the last quarter (October-December) of 2013.
However, the Finance Division later approved a Tk 600-billion RADP in the last fiscal year (2013-14).
The government in its original budget for the current fiscal year has allocated Tk 803.15 billion for the annual development programme (ADP).
jasimharoon@yahoo.com
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