Bangladesh's economic growth in the first quarter of this fiscal dropped to a new low at 1.81 per cent in 15 quarters, only comparable to a crunch in the Covid-hit period in FY2021, official data showed.
In the meantime, another major macroeconomic indicator showed a respite as December inflation on a point-to-point basis eased on a lower food account.
The country's economic output fell to only 1.81 per cent as of the Q1 FY2025 as political upheaval centering round the student-mass uprising during the period "affected economic activities a lot", as manifest in the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data released Monday.
The gross domestic product (GDP) growth three-year-and-nine-month ago (15 quarters) in Q2 of the FY2021 -- the worst time because of the coronavirus impact -- was the lowest on record at 0.93 per cent.
On a point-to-point basis, the rate of economic growth in the Q1 of the last fiscal year (FY2024) was recorded at 6.04 per cent, the BBS showed in its count.
According to the state-run statistical bureau, the Q4 (October-Dec) GDP in the previous FY2023 was recorded at 6.88 per cent.
Meanwhile, although the economy bounced back from the FY2022 with a 7.10-percent growth by official count, the trajectory took a downturn in FY2023 to reach 5.78 per cent and then little higher at 5.82 per cent in FY2024.
According to the provisional data, Bangladesh's economy saw a 6.25-percent growth in its total monetary value of final goods and services in the Q1 of FY2023.
In the first quarter of FY2024, the GDP grew at a rate of 6.01 per cent, in the 2nd quarter (Oct-Dec) at 4.87 per cent, in the 3rd quarter (Jan-Mar) at 5.42 per cent and in the 4th quarter (April-Jun) at 3.91 per cent.
The BBS has shown that main growth drivers -- industry and service sectors -- performed worse in the Q1 of the current fiscal (FY2025) as their expansion rate belied belief with a fall below the rate in the previous quarter (April-June).
Industry's GDP growth plummeted to 2.13 per cent in Q1FY2025 from 3.98 per cent in Q4 of the last fiscal (FY2024), which largely weighed down the overall growth.
The services sector expanded at 1.54 per cent in the Q1 in this fiscal in a tumble from 3.67 per cent in the Q4 of the last fiscal (FY2024).
However, agriculture also performed badly in the Q1FY2025 with a near-zero 0.16-percent growth in a headlong fall from 5.27 per cent recorded in the Q1FY2024.
At current price, the size of the Q1FY2025 GDP comes to Tk 12.66 trillion. In the Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of the last fiscal, the size of GDP was Tk 11.70 trillion, Tk 13.06 trillion, Tk 13.23 trillion and Tk 13.78 trillion respectively.
The country's economy has navigated rough weather over the last couple of years with the major macroeconomic indicators -- export, foreign-exchange reserves, import, private-sector credit, and capital machinery and raw material imports, employment and investment -- showing below-par readings.
For the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the GDP growth in FY2020 dropped to 3.45 per cent. Despite a recovery in the consecutive two fiscals in FY2021 and FY2022, the economic growth fell from the 6.0-percent club in FY2022, in FY2023 and in FY2024.
Meantime, the point-to-point inflation in December eased to 10.89 per cent compared to the previous month, but the annual moving average rate stayed higher, the latest official data showed Monday.
In the previous month of November, the inflation rate on a point-to-point basis was recorded at 11.38 per cent, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) statistics.
In December 2023, the point-to-point inflation was 9.41 per cent, the official data showed.
The annual average inflation rate in the last calendar year (2024) was recorded higher at 10.34 per cent than the 9.48 per cent in the previous year, 2023.
According to the BBS, the rate of food inflation on a point-to-point basis in December dropped by 0.88-percentage points to 12.92 per cent from 13.80 per cent recorded in November.
The non-food inflation also dropped, by 0.13-percentage points to 9.26 per cent, in December from 9.39 per cent last November.
People in towns are still the worst victims of the food-inflation pressure compared to those in rural areas, as evident in the BBS data.
The food inflation in urban areas was recorded at 13.56 per cent last month against 12.63 per cent in the rural Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, the inflationary pressure is still biting the rural people much as the consumer price index (CPI) has been maintaining a higher trend over there compared to townspeople.
The point-to-point inflation rate in rural areas was recorded at 11.09 per cent last December, 0.25-percentage-point higher than that in the urban areas.
The food inflation in villages slowed down to 12.63 per cent in December from 13.41 per cent in the previous month.
The non-food inflation in rural areas also declined to 9.65 per cent in December from 9.72 per cent in the previous month.
"In the urban areas, the rate of inflation last month was recorded at 10.84 per cent, 0.53- percentage-point lower than 11.37 per cent in the previous month of November," it is stated by the BBS.
The food inflation in the urban Bangladesh also decreased to 13.56 per cent in December from 14.63 per cent in November.
The BBS has also unveiled the 'Wage Rate Index (WRI)' where it shows that wages in Bangladesh increased at a rate of 8.14 per cent in December from 8.10 per cent in November last.
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