Remittance inflow target revised downward by 11pc

Jasim Uddin Haroon | Published: February 11, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00

The government has revised its remittance inflow projection downward for the current fiscal year in the wake of its fall in recent months.
According to the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the government's latest target is to attain at least 1.0 per cent growth for the current fiscal year of 2014 as against earlier projection of 12 per cent.
The MoF slashed the target in a recent meeting held at the ministry.
However, analysts said the government's latest target will not be achieved as the volume of six-month remittance inflows ending December had already fallen into negative territory.
If their forecasts turn true, Bangladesh's remittance earnings will grow negatively, for the first time, in 13 years.
Earlier, during the 2000-2001 period, Bangladesh had experienced a negative growth in remittance earnings.
Ahsan H Mansur, executive director at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said: "In my view, Bangladesh will not achieve even its 1.0 per cent growth. Rather, I think there will be negative growth."
Sources at the MoF blamed appreciation of local currency against the US dollar as the main reason behind the drastic fall in remittance earnings.
They said Bangladeshi expatriate workers feel discouraged to send home their hard-earned money as their relatives get less local currency following appreciation of Bangladesh Taka.
Mr. Mansur said appreciation of local currency is not the major reason. "The number of outgoing workers has also fallen and this is the main reason."
Mr. Mansur blamed the government's failure in boosting manpower export to different countries including the Middle East as the key reason behind the fall in remittances.
During the last six months ending December in 2013, just over 200,000 people went aboard for jobs.
The total number of outgoing expatriates stood at 607,000 during the January-December period in 2012.
Dr. AK Enamul Haque, senior economist at the Dhaka-based Economic Research Group (ERG) said the net flow of outgoing people remained very low over its corresponding period in 2012.
"As the net number of expatriates from Bangladesh fell, the earnings came down sharply."
Mr. Haque said: "I don't agree about appreciation of local currency as the major reason as it has been maintaining a stable position over the past months."
Mr. Haque said uncertainty among the Bangladeshi expatriate workers following many crackdowns in many countries including Saudi Arabia led to fall in remittances.
Dr. Khandker Moazzem, an additional director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said attaining the latest target in terms of remittances is very difficult for the government in the wake of falling performance in recent months.
Mr. Moazzem said Bangladesh now needs to earn $1.3 billion each month up to June next to attain the latest target.
Bangladesh earned $1.1 billion on an average over the last six months from July in 2013.
"Bangladesh needs extra $175 million each month to achieve its latest target. But it will be possible if the number of outgoing people rises."
Mr. Moazzem said many Bangladeshi workers are paying money for legalising their stay in different countries.
"This is also a reason," he added.
However, analysts said Bangladesh now needs an agreement with Saudi Arabia to increase manpower export there.
India has already signed a labour cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia in January in 2014 which will cover about a quarter of the 2.8 million Indian expatriates working there.
They said Bangladesh is missing many opportunities including in Qatar to increase its manpower exports following lack of effective initiatives.