Sidr aftermath and our tasks ahead

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Shahiduzzaman Khan
Bangladesh is going to face a 'difficult challenge' in its history, given the devastating floods and cyclone, and the rocketing oil and commodity prices in the international market. Such views were expressed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its quarterly economic update.
Launching the update this week, ADB Country Director Hua Du said natural calamities are likely to hit growth of gross domestic product (GDP), which is expected to grow below 6.0 per cent as compared to 6.5 per cent during the previous year. In fact, all indications suggest that the country may not achieve the growth target this fiscal.
Cyclone Sidr left a trail of devastations in the affected coastal districts of Barisal and Khulna. After-effects of the cyclone are horrible. Water has been contaminated throughout the affected zones and the crop damage is staggering. Half of the Aman yields have been damaged triggering speculation of widespread shortfall of rice this year. The government needs to import at least 1.0 million tonnes of rice immediately as the current food stock will shrink from March next year. Some experts predicted food shortfall to the tune of 2.0 million tonnes.
Trade and business activities in the affected areas came to a standstill as infrastructure and communication facilities have been damaged heavily. With donors' assistance, the local administration is trying to resume business activities in the cyclone-hit areas. The country is losing cultivable land at a rate of one per cent a year. Two consecutive floods this year destroyed a huge amount of food grains, and the sector is increasingly vulnerable due to changing climate. As of now, the country's food security is under pressure following recent floods and cyclone side coupled with some countries' ban on food grains exports. It is very crucial for Bangladesh to ensure food security by importing food grains to meet the expected shortfall. The government also needs to continue its targeted food grain supplies aiming at reaching the most disadvantaged people and ensure the availability of fertiliser at affordable costs to the growers in order to help keep food prices low. Domestic food grain production remains susceptible to losses due to floods, droughts, and cyclone -- disrupting domestic supplies and causing inadequate food availability.
Environmentalists and bio-diversity experts fear immense loss to the Sundarbans and its wildlife, as the brunt of hurricane Sidr was borne by the world's largest mangrove forest. Sidr, with a ferocious wind force of over 220 kilometres per hour (kmph), hit the eastern parts of the forest leaving a trail of severe devastation. The uprooted trees and destroyed houses on the edge of the forest are reminiscent of the devastation brought to the forest by the cyclone of 1988. The damage done to the forest by Sidr with its seven feet high tidal surge accompanied with a wind speed of over 220 kmph might be much worse than before.
Low-lying Bangladesh is predicted to be one of the worst victims of global warming. The latest climate models indicate its devastating impact on the country. For example, flooding, which affects roughly a fifth of the country each year, will go up by up to 40 per cent this century as sea levels rise, monsoons become wetter and more intense cyclones lead to higher tidal surges.
There is every indication that the climate is undergoing a change for the worse. In Bangladesh, we now experience unprecedented intense heat waves in summer and unusually cold spells in the shorter winters, not to speak of the ever-worsening floods that destroys life and property each year. The weather pattern is getting increasingly erratic, so much so that forecasters at the Met office are often at a loss. The monsoon floods this year lingered unusually long and took an exceptionally catastrophic turn, submerging almost two-thirds of the country.
In Bangladesh, the shelters for humans were built in the coastal areas after the 1991 disaster. Although the population grew a lot in size since then and people moved from their earlier places of residence, no new shelter was set up. So the government should immediately construct more shelters after assessing the requirement. Roads damaged badly everywhere in the affected areas need to be reconstructed.
The media and the civil society should play an active role in providing voice to the affected people. This will ensure that the needs of the people are readily communicated to the authorities and that relief goods are delivered to places where they are most needed. In view of the tight supply situation of food grains in the global and the domestic markets, and the rise in domestic prices, the government needs to weigh carefully all relevant factors, before any decision as regards upward revision of prices of fuel, gas, fertiliser and electricity is taken.
The current food stocks should be replenished in line with enhanced demand through both public and private imports. Necessary steps need to be taken to facilitate cross-border trade and encourage private food grain importers to open letters of credit for food imports. The government should sit with the potential importers and leading bankers on a regular basis to help address this issue on an urgent basis through constraint monitoring.
Coordination among the relevant agencies has to be strengthened for addressing multi-dimensional tasks at this critical time. Relief and rehabilitation activities should be stepped up on a high gear. This will inject an overall sense of confidence among the affected citizens to meet the gigantic challenges posed by the severe cyclone.