Robust agriculture growth pivots Bangladesh's economic growth from falling further as two other key sectors remained subdued largely following crisis-management austerity policies, in economists' view.
In the last fiscal year (2022-23), the GDP growth of Bangladesh contracted to 5.78 per cent, according to the final count by the BBS.
The agricultural sector, consisting of crops, horticulture, pisciculture, animal farming, and forest, expanded 3.37 per cent, up 0.32 percentage points, in the year under review.
But the growth of the two other key sectors ---manufacturing and services --- was lower than that a year back.
The manufacturing-sector growth was recorded at 8.37 per cent, down by 1.5 percentage points in the year from the previous year', the BBS data showed.
The service sector or the biggest sector of Bangladesh's economy expanded at 5.37 per cent or down by 0.89 percentage points from a year earlier.
The service sector usually has a share of around 50 per cent. It mainly consists of wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, land transport, water transport, air transport, accommodation and food -service activities, information and communications, financial and insurance activities, monetary intermediation (banks) and insurance.
The latest final estimation of the GDP or gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2022-23 was released on Thursday by the country's national statistical organisation or BBS.
"The data show that domestic factor, especially agriculture, is a key driver as far as economic activity is concerned for Bangladesh," says Dr Zahid Hussain, an independent economist of Bangladesh.
In his view, the main reason for such performance of agriculture is consecutive bumper crops thanks to favourable weather conditions.
The former World Bank economist, however, notes that economic growth contracted mainly because of the instability of the macro-economy, including its forex-market volatility.
He opines that the industrial growth dropped as capital-machinery and raw-material imports were hit hard by the import compression being pursued by the Bangladesh Bank.
The central bank of Bangladesh has been pursuing a tight policy in terms of imports to contain the fastest depletion of the country's foreign-exchange reserves.
He also says the pressure of higher inflation on the economy eroded the real purchasing power of the people which is reflected in the service sector's poor growth.
Dr Ahsan H. Mansur, executive director of Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh or PRI, says this is true that agriculture was the most successful sector when its real growth is concerned.
Dr Mansur views that value addition from the financial sector was poor following poor deposit growth and higher non-performing loans in the banking industry.
"The contribution from the insurance sector and the capital market to the GDP was also poor in 2022-23."
But he raised his eyebrow over the agriculture growth as the prices of many key agricultural goods remained high on the market.
He mentioned the prices of potatoes, onions, chickens, eggs, and pulses.
"I have doubt over the bumper-growth claims of the agricultural sector," says Dr Mansur. The economist, however, forecasts the GDP growth to moderate over the next few quarters, on the back of recent economic activity.
"We have to ease import and stop volatility on the forex market," he suggests for the forecast to bear fruit.
jasimharoon@yahoo.com