Syria remains volatile with new threats of dangerous weapons use

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Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
The Syrian tangle remains the most volatile international flashpoint. New elements have been introduced to the conflict with the possibility about the use of dangerous weapons by the Assad regime and the likely counter-actions by the backers of the rebels. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has said that president Bashar Al-Assad has already fired several Scud missiles in the rebel strongholds in a desperate bid to cling himself to power. On the other hand, the Damascus government says that the "western" and "Arab" nations, supporting the rebels in the Syrian civil war, are deploying "Patriot" and other missiles, demonstrating external involvement in the conflict.
Whatever be the truth, the fact remains that the Syrian situation is moving towards further complications that may drag big and neighbouring countries into the conflict. This will be more so, if more dangerous weapons are used by either side for a decisive outcome of the 21-month-long turmoil that has taken more than 41,000 lives.
Already, the possibility about the use of chemical weapons by president Bashar al-Assad has tended to further aggravate the situation. The United States has served a fresh warning about its befitting response to the situation, if the beleaguered Syrian regime chooses to use this dangerous weapons in the current crisis. The tough warning came from the US Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton. She said the US position should be treated as a "red line" since no room exists for any moderation if the Syrian government opts for tough measures to protect itself from the rebel onslaught. Not unexpectedly, a spokesman in Damascus has sought to play down the American warning, saying that Washington is unnecessarily trying o create panic as the government has no intention to use destructive weapons against its own people.
On the contrary, the spokesman said, the external forces, in collusion with some local "traitors", are attempting to use dangerous weapons against the Syrian people. The accusations and counter-accusations apart, the fact remains that the issue of weapons of mass destruction is once again discussed hotly in the Syrian crisis while the government and the rebels are locked in a see-saw civil war there with no signs yet about any side making any decisive progress.
The uprising against the Assad regime began 21 months ago and the crisis is becoming increasingly dangerous in the sense that outside powers -- the major nations and the neighbours -- are getting involved in it in varying ways. While the US and other western powers are solidly siding with the Syrian rebels, Russia and China oppose the moves to topple the Assad regime by force. The latter two nations have vetoed several proposals at the United Nations Security Council that were mooted by the western countries against the Syrian government, alleging that it has let loose repression against own people.
The Syrian rebels claim successes in the long-drawn-out battles against the regime while the latter says the activities of the opponents are fizzling out slowly. The conflict that has taken by some estimations more than 41,000 lives, also forced a large number of people to take refuge in the neighbouring Turkey and Jordan. Several western nations have already recognized the Syrian rebels as the only legal representative of the Syrian people, with France taking the lead in this direction.
The Syrian civil war is also spilling over to the neighbouring countries in a way as Turkey is hosting a large number of the Syrian refugees leaving their country to avoid the fighting. The Ankara government is a staunch supporter of the Syrian rebels and so are some other Arab nations like the Saudi Arabia and Qatar. But Turkey has to bear the main brunt of the Syrian crisis, being the next-door neighbour. Turkey is, thus, getting involved in the crisis as tensions occasionally flare up in its borders with Syria.
Turkey, a NATO member, is deploying missiles in its border as a deterrent to any Syrian military action while Russia has severely criticised any such action by the NATO. Beijing also has cautioned against deploying missiles along the Syria-Turkey border.
The Syrian crisis has other ramifications too, as Israel, the closest ally of the United States in the Middle East, is understandably rabidly anti-Assad and is believed to be aiding the rebels. On the other hand, Iran -- the most anti-American country in the region -- is a long-time ally of the Assad regime and Tehran is believed to be assisting Damascus in many ways, despite its own intractable problems with the US and Israel over its 'nuclear ambitions'. The Syrian civil war has also an echo in Lebanon as its people are divided on whether extending support to the Assad regime or to the rebels.
Against this backdrop, the fresh US and NATO warning against the Assad regime on the use of the Scud missiles and chemical weapons by the Damascus regime is set to compound the crisis. True, the use of such weapons cannot be totally ruled out as US and Israeli intelligence reports indicate some unusual movements on part of the Syrian military, dealing with chemical weapons.
However, it may be little premature to assume that the Assad regime has reached such a precarious state to use weapons of mass destruction like the chemical ones, though the western sources say that the fall of the regime is just a matter of time. The reality is that the Syrian conflict is going to last longer and bigger complications, as it seems, are awaited.
(zaglulbss@yahoo.com)