Syrian conflict enters 3rd year with no sign of a thaw in sight

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Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury The deadly civil war in Syria has entered its third year with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad still appearing firm in the saddle amid unsparing efforts by the rebels to dislodge his 'tyrannical' government. As the devastating conflict looks increasingly dangerous for involvement of 'external' powers, in varying degrees, efforts for a peaceful settlement have practically collapsed. Even though the United Nations-Arab League peace envoy -- veteran diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi -- is moving from post to pillar in search of some common ground among the contending parties, his effort has clearly hit snags, causing frustration all round. The long-running conflict has claimed more than 70,000 lives and forced a huge number of Syrians to flee the embattled country and seek refugee in the neighbouring countries. Even though the chances of a dialogue brightened sometime ago, the scenario is now gloomy with little likelihood of serious negotiations. Earlier, the Syrian government was ready to hold talks with its armed opponents. But that situation seems to have drastically changed, following particularly the visit by Syria's foreign minister Walid al-Moulaem to Moscow. Damascus's key ally had spoken of its readiness to work in concert with others for a solution to the crisis without any further bloodshed. That was one of the clearest indications about negotiations with the rebels fighting to overthrow the regime of President Assad. But the opportunity for dialogue could not make much headway. Earlier, President Bashar al-Assad was caught off-guard when a key opposition leader offered dialogue with the government in an effort to resolve the civil war that began on March 15, 2011 as a sequel to the "Arab Spring", in support of demands for democratic and economic reforms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In his 'surprise' offer, Ahmed Moaz-al-Khatib of the opposition national coalition, urged the regime for talks although he insisted that no discussion would be possible with Assad himself remaining in power. He and others among the rebel groups believe that Assad's hands are tainted with blood. In any case, that offer provided an opportunity -- howsoever scant it was -- for a settlement of the Syrian civil war. It now looks to be an intractable one, having wider ramifications. Although the apparent 'willingness' on the part of the opposition for talks with the government was not without criticisms from within the rebels themselves, yet it had received a boost in the recent meeting of the Syrian opposition groups in Cairo. The regime, which initially ignored the offer for talks from Moaz al-Khatib by seeking to put up a brave face, changed later its hard stance. This offer led to a mounting pressure on the beleaguered Syrian president, who considers the rebels as the "foreign agents", though his regime has increasingly been feeling the pinch of the civil war in which both the warring sides are claiming successes. The reality is that none is still now closer to any decisive outcome. That makes the conflict more intractable. Unfortunately, the chance for dialogue thus remains elusive. The Syrian tangle is inexorably moving towards further complications as the Assad regime and the rebels continue to claim that their respective sides are making big strides in the warfare. Evidently, there has been a further deterioration of the overall situation while the United Nations is launching a major humanitarian mission in the war-ravaged country. A big number of Syrian population has, meanwhile, been fleeing the country because of the seriously adverse fall-outs from a two-year-long civil war. Outside involvement -- even if indirectly -- may further compound the complexities of the Syrian crisis. Several Western nations have recognised the Syrian rebels as the only legitimate representatives of the Syrian people and the powerful United States has followed the suit of France, Britain and several Arab countries in this regard. This clearly brings the Syrian civil war to the dangerous condition for a way-out of the crisis. The stance of all these nations makes their position somewhat irreversible in the context of the on-going conflict while forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and the rebels are continuing their fight for control of different areas of the war-torn country. The Syrian army is using tanks and other heavy weapons in the conflict and the rebels -- largely out-gunned -- are making pleas for urgent assistance and even intervention from the quarters, who support their bid to dislodge the Assad regime. But the backers are still unwilling for direct intervention even though they are reportedly assisting the rebels with money and arms. The official embargo on supplying arms to the rebels remains in place; the European Union (EU) is divided on the issue, with some members fearing that such supply of arms would escalate the tension in the region. On the other side, Assad regime's main international friend -- Russia -- made it clear that there is hardly any chance that the Damascus regime would fall -- a contention that the 'West' does overtly or covertly tend to agree. A comment to this effect by Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov poured cold water on some Western reports that the beleaguered Syrian president was seeking "safe exit" from the country. President Assad himself in his latest address to the nation also vowed to remain in Syria in face of "foreign conspiracies" and all these are making the conflict beyond any settlement through talks. The regime also criticised the role of UN and Arab peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. This has introduced another negative element in the process of finding out a negotiated settlement of the crisis. The Algerian veteran diplomat took over the assignment after former UN Secretary General Kofi Anaan quit in sheer disgust and frustration. But he is finding it to be a Herculean task in making any headway in his mission. The conflict has also taken another alarming turn as the US and the allies allege that the Syrian regime has used "Scud" missiles against the rebels in a clear sign of desperation -- a charge that Syria has denied. On the contrary, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has installed "Patriot" missiles along the Turkey-Syria border to "protect" Turkey from any Syrian "aggression"; this has added another uneasy element to the tangle. Earlier, Hillary Clinton, who recently stood down as the US secretary of state, chose to visit Turkey for urgent consultations on the latest scenario about the Syrian civil war. Both Washington and Ankara are staunch supporters of the Syrian rebels and the latter is providing shelter to the refugees coming from the neighbouring country because of escalating fighting. Several senior army officers who defected from Assad regime, have also taken shelter in Turkey, whose otherwise normal ties with Syria has now obviously turned very bitter. The United States and Turkey are calling President Assad to quit the scene for the larger good of his country. But their pleas have fallen on deaf ears as the Syrian president charges the supporters of the rebels with "designs" to topple his government for their narrow self-interests. The friends of Damascus like Russia and China -- two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) -- have also been accusing the West of trying to install a government of their choice in Syria. Two nations have blocked some tough proposals in the UNSC against Syria and are of the view that a solution to the Syrian crisis has to be found within the UN framework. They are wary that external powers might take advantage of the current situation for the sake of their interests. Iran, also a close ally of Syria, made it clear that it would not relish any condition that goes against the Assad regime and warned foreign powers to keep their hands off Syria. Israel, a known foe of Syria and Iran, is happy with the situation that the Assad regime is weakened by the civil war. As the overall situation in Syria offers yet no opportunity for an early cessation of the conflict, the offer by opposition leader Khatib for talks with the regime did earlier come as a ray of hope in an otherwise too difficult scenario. The rebels are calling for departure of Assad from power and are keen for talks with other the key figures in the regime like vice-president Faruq al-Sharaa. They want release of their supporters from jail and some other conditions to be met for a settlement of the civil war. The regime has its own issues. Definitely, the beginning of the talks is a tough exercise. The United States is a key supporter of the rebels and its new secretary of state, John Kerry has visited some of the countries which are directly or indirectly involved in the Syrian situation. But the scenario remains still largely unaltered as the conflicting parties in the tangle are unwilling to cede ground. How long will the civil war in Syria continue? It is a million-dollar question now in Syria and beyond its border. (zaglulbss@yahoo.com)