There should be \\\'no compromise\\\' on credible and quality data

Jasim Uddin Haroon | Published: November 17, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 16, 2014 23:45:31

Prof Nurul Islam

"All democratic governments which have legitimacy should ensure transparency on some basic economic data."
Professor Dr. Nurul Islam expressed this view in an exclusive interview with the FE, on the sidelines of a conversation with a group of the country's economists at a city hotel on Saturday last.
The Professor who lives in Maryland USA spent a busy schedule in town.
The FE correspondent wanted to know his views about the country's economic data and statistical organisation.
There should be transparency on some basic economic data that will be trusted by everybody, he said.
He was expressing his views in plain language on different national statistics and data production methods.
He said legitimacy requires transparency and accountability. "And trust on the data stems from accountability and transparency".
Dr. Islam was a professor and Chair of Economics Department at the Dhaka University. He was also Deputy Chairman of the first Planning Commission of Bangladesh.
Professor Islam who has been living outside the country for long often asked about different economic measurement to local economists present in the room.
He argued forcefully in favour of keeping data on major indicators in the public domain, adding there should not be any compromise on the quality of data.
"The more you conceal the more you raise suspicion…," Professor Islam said.
Professor Islam who was Director of the then Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (now Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies) said he and many other researchers feel frustrated when Bangladesh lacks reliable, adequate and up-to-date data on many key sectors.
He pointed out that this was due to lack of high quality staff with adequate incentive.
Surveys are high cost endeavours. Surveys sponsored by donors typically cost a lot more than what is spent by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) to collect information through surveys, he said.
Professor Islam said the government budget will not feel any pinch if the expenditure for conducting surveys is increased by three-folds.
"It appears that policy makers are unaware, uninformed, or perhaps uninterested about the quality of data", Professor Islam who was an assistant director general of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation, told the FE.
Professor Islam stressed the need for strengthening the national statistical organisation of Bangladesh -- BBS -- for producing quality and authentic data.
He said the national statistical organisation in Canada is headed by a minister. "It's so powerful.."
He advocated for a fully independent statistical organisation in Bangladesh.
"The institution should be independent, as in all developed nations, and even in India, statistical organisations are working independently," Professor Islam said.
"In India, because of the existence of multiple research institutions, at central and state level, that are continuously reviewing data, it is nearly impossible to meddle with national level data," he said.
He said in India there is no debate on such data as gross domestic product (GDP) or its growth rate. There may be debates on the measurement of poverty. "There may be 100 papers on the poverty, but no debate on basic data," he said.
"Status of the statistical organisation should be upgraded; it could be made into a constitutional body," Professor Islam who was an advisor and later Emeritus Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told the FE.
He said both the public and private investment must increase for the sustainable economic growth in Bangladesh.
He said, after so many years, it is striking that there is no reliable data on savings.
"Most countries have data on private savings, public saving and corporate saving, but we lack," he said. He raised a question on the present method of estimating savings. "In my mind, it is not being measured properly,"
Professor Islam was also critical of the investment estimate.
He was surprised that the same crude method that was used in 1972 is still being used for measuring gross domestic investment, that is, by applying commodity flow method where you collect data on import of capital machinery, steel, cement, etc., and then compute overall investment. Data on public investment is then obtained from Annual Development Programme (ADP) and private investment is computed as residual. This was done in early 1970s. How come this has not changed, he enquired. "This is very old practice, I saw and did it in my student life," he said.
"It's 50 years' old practice and it is unacceptable now," Professor Islam who was also a Bangladesh Bank award-winning economist, told the FE.
He expressed the view that there is a need for a survey for the estimation of the private sector investment.
Replying to a question relating to planning and the ministry of planning, he said the Planning Commission had a supervising role over plans of all ministries.
He opined that the planning ministry lacks proper terms of reference.
He said IMED (implementation, monitoring and evaluation division) do monitor expenditure, not output.
Professor Islam said Bangladesh's main challenges are lack of infrastructure and, in a broader sense, sound institutions.
He was also critical of the country's education. He said high quality education was a must and this is nothing new.
He said the young generation will opt for being educated outside the country and will work in other countries if they do not get proper and quality education in the country.
He held several visiting academic appointments at Yale and Cambridge Universities and both the London and the Netherlands School of Economics. He was a member and later the Chairman of the UN Committee of Development Planning Policy.
Professor Islam is noted for his analysis and recommendations (Two Economies Thesis: The Road to Six Points) which became known as the Six Point Movement that eventually culminated in the liberation of Bangladesh.
His selected works include Development Planning in Bangladesh: A Study in Political Economy (UPL, 1979, reprint 1993) o Development Strategy of Bangladesh (Pergamon, 1978) o Foodgrain Price Stabilization in Developing Countries: Issues and Experiences in Asia (IFPRI, 1996) o Exploration in Development Issues: Selected Articles of Nurul Islam (Ashgate, 2003).

jasimharoon@yahoo.com