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Ukraine crisis worsens: Where is it going?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury | May 04, 2014 00:00:00


Russia has warned Ukraine of "catastrophic consequences" if the latter does not halt a military operation against the "pro-Moscow" gunmen in eastern Ukraine. This serves as an indication that Kremlin is moving closer to direct involvement in the months'-long crisis.

On the other hand, the United States and its European allies have threatened Moscow with more sanctions and other forms of punishments if Russia continues its "designs" to destabilize Ukraine ahead of the planned presidential elections on May 25. This has been noted in a tough statement that will further stoke up tensions between the two sides having big stakes in the Ukraine crisis.

Meanwhile, the situation has already taken a nosedive as Russian president Vladimir Putin says the Geneva accord among the US, Ukraine, the European Union (EU) and his country on certain matters relating to the crisis is "now dead".

Tensions and hostilities continue to characterize the Ukraine scenario with the United States and the EU stepping up the pressure on Moscow over the worst East-West crisis since the end of the cold war. Tensions on the ground further spiked when a pro-Russian mayor was shot and badly injured and the rebels seized another town in a clear demonstration of the worsening condition in Ukraine.

Moscow seems to be in no mood to control its supporters in seizing several towns and areas in the eastern Ukraine although it says that the Kremlin has no role in the activities of the rebels, who are acting on their own taking a pro-Russian stance. The US and the EU have flatly rejected Moscow's views on the issue and slapped more sanctions to dissuade Russia from its further involvement in the unrest in Ukraine. Moscow says that it has no plan to invade Ukraine, but the West is hardly assured by such protestations and continues to mount pressure on Russia through economic and other form of restrictions. In a fresh round of sanctions, the US has named seven officials and seventeen firms known to be close to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin while the EU also named many others, especially the high ranking military officials.

Russia's "annexation" of Crimea -- the erstwhile autonomous region of Ukraine -- now seems to be a almost "dead issue" since the development has been accepted as irreversible. The West, however, is still talking about the illegality of Crimea's incorporation with the Russia. The United States president Barack Obama and his counterparts from the European nations mince no words against the Russian "designs", but Crimea for all practical purposes is now a part of the Kremlin -- albeit the controversy surrounding the development.

Ukraine itself is also convinced that Moscow has dealt its final blow against the sovereignty of "Kiev" authority by taking control of everything in Crimea and is now concerned about Moscow's actions in other largely Russian-speaking areas in Ukraine. The rebels   have seized government buildings in some of such areas, raising Russian flag and "Kiev" government sent its troops to some of these areas to clear the building from the "secessionists" with partial success only.

Earlier when efforts by the United States and Russia for cessation of the tensions surrounding Crimea failed, particularly the referendum that was held there on March 16 last, the latter came as the last straw on the camel's back. As the two sides could not come to any understanding on the escalating crisis in Ukraine, particularly when the eye of the storm was Crimea, fears had soared that the cold-war style tensions would further engulf the globe in the coming days unless the growing signs of hostilities are effectively checked. But no sign of a thaw is yet seen in the conflict in the aftermath of the fall of the pro-Russian government in Ukraine on February 22. A West-supported authority is now at the helm of affairs in Kiev. The developments that followed the change of guards in Ukraine led to a volatile situation bringing the Russia almost on a head-on-collision with the West, particularly the EU and the United States.

Moscow, after having suffered a big setback in the latest developments in Ukraine, a former Soviet Union republic, turned the table on the West by annexing Crimea, which has a large ethnic Russian population. With the fall of the Kiev government, Crimea showed defiance to the new pro-West Federal authority and sided with the Kremlin. This came as a big problem for the new government in Ukraine and also for the West, which said Moscow was wrong by encouraging Crimea to defy the authorities of the Kiev government. But Russia did not stop there and the local parliament was understandably encouraged by Moscow to seek a referendum in Crimea whether the region would remain with Ukraine or join the Russian federation. Kremlin completed the formalities in a haste by incorporating Crimea into its fold, saying the region has only came back to its original place.

Things have not settled down after the inclusion of Crimea in Russia. On the contrary, new complications have arisen because of the engagement of Russian troops in its eastern borders. The development in Crimea clearly encouraged several other areas with a sizeable Russian-speaking population to revolt against the Kiev authority. The government of Ukraine, on its part, asserted that the situation in Crimea would not be allowed to be replicated in any other places of the country. But things have worsened and the West and Russia are engaged in a conflict that is fraught with much wider dangers.

It appears that the crisis in Ukraine is snowballing into a much bigger conflict, despite the fact that four parties -- Russia, US, EU and Ukraine -- have pledged at a meeting sometime ago to contain the dangerous situation. The latest round of the sanctions and the confrontations on the ground in Ukraine, involving the defence personnel of Ukraine and Russia, would only underline that Moscow is unlikely to roll back its long-term plans in Ukraine although it would give the impression that it has nothing to do as such in the pro-Kremlin activities in the eastern Ukraine.

Two sides have locked horns at the United Nations security council on the situation in Ukraine as Moscow says Pro-Russian people are being attacked by the Ukraine forces and the latter asking the armed Kremlin supporters to vacate the areas they had occupied earlier. Clearly, the overall condition in Ukraine is deteriorating fast, highlighting the urgency for international action to help contain the volatile situation there.

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