Country's premier trade-promotion-organisation MCCI aired fears Saturday about serious decline in export earnings, remittances, foreign aid and investment, and fiscal revenues unless the prolonged political unrest is addressed in right earnest.
Based on its calculations on these fundamentals of the national economy amid a nonstop blockade and periodic hartals, the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry forecast that the government might revise downward its economic growth estimations.
The government has set growth target at 7.3 per cent for the current fiscal year (2014-15).
The apprehensions and suggestions came in the MCCI's last quarter (October-December 2014) review of the country's economic health. The review report on 'Economic Situation of Bangladesh' was released Saturday.
The MCCI noted both Bangladesh Bank and a number of international organisations had already forecast downturn in the economy for disruption of economic activity.
Highlighting the adverse impacts of the ongoing blockade and strikes on the economy, the business body hinted it would create a lot of uncertainties in the economy in future.
The MCCI, however, observed the October-December quarter was peaceful and many sectors, including industry and agriculture, did better despite many obstructions.
It thinks the major challenges now facing the country are to restore the confidence of the country's business and investor community, boost private investment, and bring momentum in economic activities.
"Entrepreneurs, whether local or foreign, are not as interested in economic incentives as they are in sound economic policies, a favourable business environment and a stable political climate," it is stated in the report.
It also reads: "These (foreign and local investment) are also some of the essential preconditions for accelerating the country's economic growth."
Doing the anatomy of the nation's economic health the chamber mentioned total tax-revenue collection (NBR and non-NBR) during the first five months of FY15 was higher by 13.7 per cent, but remained below target because of falling consumption, and sluggish economic activity.
At the same time, NBR tax-revenue collection during the July-November period of FY15 stood at Tk 477.25 billion, which was 23.5 per cent short of the target.
The country's oldest chamber body cautioned that without developing new infrastructures and improving the existing ones, Bangladesh may miss the bus on way to becoming a middle-income country within the targeted timeframe.
It noted stability on the capital market in the first half of 2014 but deplored that the last half saw a struggle between bulls and bears as it tried to find a direction.
The trade body said: "Efforts were made to shore up the market in the past three years, but the market is still stagnant as investors' confidence is yet to be restored."
In its view the market stability would largely depend on political stability in 2015.
Services sectors are doing well but will need adequate government support to enable them to recoup the losses they suffered during the political crisis before the January 5th, 2014 elections.
jasimharoon@yahoo.com
