What is the likely scenario in Thailand after elections?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury | Published: February 09, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00

The elections in Thailand are now over, but hardly anyone thinks that the polls would help resolve the debilitating political crisis in the country. The voting on February 02 went off rather peacefully in that country barring some areas and this has come as a shot in the arm, for the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinnawatra.
Nevertheless, the balloting remains a big question since the main opposition party and the protesters demanding the resignation of the government boycotted the polls, raising serious doubts about the credibility of its outcome. The results have not been announced, but few have interest in the same since the outcome is a foregone conclusion in the one-sided elections.
The polls would not lead to any change of government, but the lingering question that has come to the fore is that for how long the authority would remain at the helm. Because, the voting has opened up fresh issues of credibility at home and abroad even though the government, not surprisingly, seeks to put up a brave face.
Protesters clamoured for the postponement of the voting, saying they want drastic reforms in the system of rule, and asked for the formation of a "Peoples Council" to govern the country for the time being. The demonstrators, who are creating big headache for the government, feel that Thailand needs to getÂ rid of "unjust and corrupt" politicians. However, their leader Suthep Thaugsuban, who earlier threatened to "close every route" to the polling stations in an effort to stop the balloting, said later that they did not obstruct the polls physically, but asked electorate to stay away from balloting. The main opposition, Democratic Party (DP), has boycotted the elections, which the prime minister called much ahead of the expiry of her term. Â
The political crisis in the Thailand has been showing no sign of a resolution amid speculations that were rife in capital Bangkok and elsewhere in the country about a possible intervention by the armed forces. Such a possibility got credence after the army indicated that nothing is ruled out, if "the instability continues", causing myriad problems for the nation. The army had staged the coup earlier against the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the self-exiled former prime minister and elder brother of present premier Yingluck Shinawatra.
Now after a period of seven years, if the same action from the army follows against Yingluck Shinawatra, it would not come as a surprise since many feel that such a development may be somewhat inevitable in Thailand if the unrest continues.
The south East Asian nation is in the grip of a severe political crisis as the protestors demanding the ouster of the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra are showing increasing toughness in implementing their demand. The prime minister has vowed not to resign and called midterm polls on February 02, which remained at the centre of the controversy. The stand-off is unlikely to be resolved as the two sides have adopted diametrically opposite positions on the issue.
Thailand, globally known for its tourist attractions, is facing one of the most volatile conditions in last several years. As the unrest was escalating and a tense situation continues to prevail, the country remains in the focus of the international media. Analysts have kept their fingers crossed about the shape of things to come in the days ahead as many were earlier speculating some developments after an emergency has been declared before the polls. However, many others believe that the present uneasy condition may continue for some more time and both sides will test each other's patience and ability in confronting the situation. The King, who is highly revered, may also intervene.
Yingluck Shinawatra made history by becoming the first women prime minister of the country following a resounding victory by her political party in the elections that were followed by the recent debatable polls, held early this month. A relatively stranger in politics, she owes the success largely to the coattail of her elder brother and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who lives abroad. Thaksin was quite popular in the parts of the rural areas in Thailand and also with several segments of the country's middle class. But the billionaire businessman-turned-politician was ousted by a military coup in 2007and was also sentenced to prison terms on charge of corruption. He has been living abroad for the last few years and did not return to Thailand even after his political party, led by her sister, won the polls and formed the government.
Evidently, Thaksin Shinawatra did not want to embarrass the government although impression gained ground in the country that it was he who was calling the shots on important issues. Recently, the government sought to pardon him, facilitating his comeback to country, but the effort failed. But this has infuriated a large number of people, who are thronging the streets in capital, Bangkok, demanding that the government must go. Initially in small numbers, the protestors grew in strength and the authoritiesÂ grappled to contain with the snowballing condition.
The prime minister offered an olive branch by shortening her tenure and announcing fresh polls. But protestors, led by former opposition MP Suthep Thaugusaban , asked the prime minister to quit and set up a "National Council" to run the country. Yingluck has refused to step down while the demonstrators are hell-bent on this demand also after the elections.
The protestors are pursuing a quixotic goal of ridding the country of the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra. They say they are frustrated with his dominance and also are disillusioned with the current democratic practice. An alternative to democracy has also been coined with a "People's Council", with leading figures of different professions. The government, not surprisingly, has poured cold water on the proposal. The main opposition Democratic Party wants polls under a neutral authority and has distanced itself from the demand of "Peoples Council".
Thailand is not known for having a stable democratic system as the nascent system, reflecting, in essence, a pluralistic pattern of polity, has come under a serious threat. That is largely because of politician's mistakes or actions that have not been compatible with hopes and aspirations of the people. Yingluck should not have moved for showing unnecessary leniency towards her brother Tahksin, who is otherwise quite powerful even if he is not physically present in the country because of problems that are related to his conviction.
The government is popular with farmers in most of the rural areas while the opposition and protestors are strong in capital Bangkok and several other places. True, elections have not changed the government even when they are highly unrepresentative. But in the interest of the second largest economy of the south-east Asia, analysts feel that Thailand needs to reach some kind of understanding between the government and the opponents. Failing this, the country may witness a derailment of its democratic process or face further instability.
(zaglulbss@yahoo.com)