Despite the return of a semblance of normality in Ukraine with Russia apparently reconciling itself with the pro-Western influence there, fears continue to swell that the Kremlin may resort to something that may seek to reverse the latest trend in the former Soviet republic. This particularly looks plausible as president Vladimir Putin is under increasing pressure not to accept the developments; this is exemplified by the situation in Crimea as a sequel to the diminution of Moscow's domination in Kiev.
However, it is only expected that Kremlin would weigh the pros and cons, before embarking on any sensational step in Ukraine like that of despatching troops. The latter have been kept alert after the loss of Russia's hegemony over that country. Besides, the deposed president of Ukraine has also taken shelter in Russia calling himself to be its "legitimate" president still now. This makes it somewhat convincing that Moscow may decide to something that will favour him.
President Putin's aggressive but prudent foreign policy has earned him credit in recent times, particularly in the case of the Syrian conflict. But the Russian leader has suffered a setback in Ukraine. The former Soviet Republic has been in the international news for the last more than three months. But the pro-Moscow regime had to give in, with the recent developments there going in favour of the "West" and the wind going against the Kremlin's sailing.
Indeed, this has come as a big blow for the Moscow since it supported a president, who had to leave his country to escape public wrath and those leaders who suffered during his time, are now taking its centre stage.
Earlier, embattled president Victor Yanukovych reached an understanding with the Ukrainian opposition to end the long-running political crisis in the country. But he had to quit the scene later in a humiliating manner as the opposition chose the new leader to oversee the interim phase until the next election. Even though the ousted president claims that he would "come back and punish the bandits", there seems little chance that he would achieve this objective in the near future. The government before its fall reached an understanding, brokered mainly by the European Union (EU) and also lately supported by Russia, on a variety of issues relating to the political affairs of the country.
Under the agreement, a national unity government was to take over power any day, constitutional reforms are to start immediately and be completed by September, 2014, presidential elections will be held no later than December this year, all parties are to refrain themselves from resorting to violence and investigations into the recent acts of violence including the government actions are to be conducted. The deal was made possible following hectic negotiations that also involved the government's main supporter, Russia, and the opposition's friends -- the EU. Earlier, American vice-president Joe Biden had threatened that the US would impose sanctions on Ukrainian officials who had ordered firing on the anti-government protestors. The nation of 46 million, thus, is divided sharply over either being the pro-Russians or the pro-West.
The situation in Ukraine turned volatile in recent days with the spectre of a civil war in a situation where the opposition supporters were readying themselves with arms for fighting with the security forces. The "West" severely condemned the government action.
It was clear that the beleaguered president of Ukraine finally caved in to reach an understanding with the opposition as developments went out of his hand and Moscow, his principal backer, also felt that things there came to a head.
The authorities now at the helm of affairs have also issued a warrant of arrest against the ousted president over the "mass murders" of the protestors and asked for $35 billion of Western aid to pull the crisis-hit country from the brink of an economic collapse. The EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, visited Kiev to discuss matters about the country's economic bail-out.
Earlier, Russian prime minister Dimitry Medvedev questioned the new leadership in Ukraine, saying its acceptance by the Western countries is "wrong" and felt that there is none in Kiev for any meaningful negotiations. But the US National Security Adviser, Susan Rice, observed that a new dawn has emerged for Ukraine and all nations, including Russia, have a role to play for its stability. She warned that it would a "grave mistake" for Ukraine's old-master Moscow to send troops to that country and try to have a government of its choice.
Russia's foreign policy is seen as successful to some extent on certain critical issues like that of the Syrian conflict when it could avert an otherwise impending American military attack on Syria and facilitated dramatically an accord on elimination of Damascus's chemical weapons. In the just-concluded peace talks on Syria's civil war in Geneva, Moscow appeared to have played a big role in the deadlocked talks as it protected the interests of president Bashar al-Assad regime.
But this has not been the case as far as Ukraine is concerned; Moscow has suffered a setback there although the US and the UK have said that Ukraine must not be seen as a kind of battleground for Russia and the West. But the fact remains that it is difficult for the Kremlin to sallow the bitter pill for obvious reasons.
In the Crimean region, Russian troops are allegedly controlling some areas as the Kiev authorities have said. Moscow has, however, denied the accusation. Russian flags have also been hoisted by the largely pro-Moscow people in the region while elsewhere in Ukraine, anti-Russian sentiment runs high. Even though the chances of further Russian involvement appears slim, the possibility of such an intervention can not altogether be ruled out. In the event of such an occurrence, the possibilities about greater tensions and instability surrounding Ukraine seem inevitable.
 (zaglulbss@yahoo.com)
Will the Ukrainian upheaval flare into a wider conflict?
Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury | Published: March 02, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00
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