Asia spot LNG prices slip on US-Iran deal hopes

FE Team | Published: May 08, 2026 23:25:20

SINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters): Prices of Asia spot liquefied natural gas slipped, after two weeks of gains, on the prospect of a US-Iran peace agreement and subdued northeast Asia demand.
The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia was estimated at $16.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), said industry sources, down from $17.80/mmBtu last week.
Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump predicted a swift end to the war with Iran while Tehran considered Washington's peace proposal that sources said would formally end the conflict. This would allow the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen but put off larger issues around Iran's nuclear programme.
"Current spot prices have started to ease off on optimism over an Iran-U.S. peace deal coupled with subdued buying activities from North Asia due to the Golden Week holiday," said ICIS analyst Evan Tan.
While prompt demand in May and June is not expected to be significantly bullish, forecasted hotter-than-normal temperatures for the summer months ahead are likely to push South Korea and Taiwan back to the spot market to replace their Qatar exposure, added Tan.
"Wealthier North Asian buyers will also push out price sensitive South Asian demand."
In south and southeast Asia, spot tendering activity remains strong, with Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Thailand continuing to seek prompt deliveries, said Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG pricing.
Spot demand in Europe is from buyers that are short on delivery obligations looking to backfill positions, rather than pure regasification holders looking to import and profit off spreads, he added.
S&P Global Energy assessed its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in June on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $14.932/mmBtu on May 7, a $0.105/mmBtu discount to the price at the TTF hub.
Argus assessed it at $14.77/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed the May price at $14.725/mmBtu.
"Looking at current LNG prices, Asian prices are higher than European ones. This suggests that all uncontracted cargoes are heading to Asia," said Hans Van Cleef, head of energy research at EqoLibrium, adding that there is still little price incentive for commercial parties to start replenishing European stocks.
"This increases the risk that European stocks will be replenished too late and in insufficient quantities."
Investment funds accelerated purchases of long TTF positions last week, as hopes of de-escalation crumbled in the face of renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, said Seb Kennedy, independent analyst at Energy Flux News.
"Funds added more length in the final week of April than at any time since late March, although much of this was likely unwound in the following days as news of the U.S.-Iran peace memorandum leaked," he added.
In LNG freight, Atlantic rates slipped to $96,500/day, while Pacific rates declined to $67,000/day, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.