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Bangladesh may surpass India in three years

Per capita income

May 30, 2018 12:00:00

Per capita income of Bangladesh may surpass the same of India within three years, according to an analysis of the Business Standard on India on Monday.

"Per capita income (in dollar terms) in Bangladesh is now growing at nearly thrice the pace of income growth in India," said the analytical report.

"At $1,355 in 2016, Bangladesh's per capita income was up 40 per cent in three years against 14 per cent growth in India and 21 per cent growth in Pakistan," it added.

"At this rate, Bangladesh's per capita income would top India's by the year 2020," the report projected.

It also said that a typical Indian has 25 per cent higher income than a Bangladeshi now while in 2011, Indians earned 87 per cent more.

Business Standard analysis further added that during 2014 and 2016, Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9 per cent.

The GDP is estimated at current prices and in dollar terms.

At the same time, it was more than double of Indian GDP's CAGR of 5.6 per cent.

"Over the same period, Pakistan grew faster than India too, at a CAGR of 8.6 per cent, driven by a surge in investment and export," it pointed out.

The Chinese economy expanded at an annualised rate of 5.2 per cent during the period under review.

Business Standard mentioned that after trailing its big neighbour for four decades, Bangladesh has gone ahead of India in economic growth and on social development indicators.

"Bangladesh is also ahead of India in the human or social development indicators of infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth," said the report.

"A newborn in Bangladesh is more likely to see her fifth birthday than her Indian or Pakistani counterpart," it explained.

"She is also likely to live longer in Bangladesh (72.5 years) than India (68.6 years) and Pakistan (66.5 years)."

Indian business daily's analysis attributed Bangladesh's economic success to its ability to fill the gap created by the slowdown in the Chinese export.

"Total exports from China declined to $2.2 trillion in 2016 from a record high of $2.35 trillion three years ago," it mentioned.

It observed that the decline created space for others in the world market for labour intensive consumer goods.

"India missed this bus as evidenced by a contraction in exports during the period," it said.

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