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BD may become 26th biggest economy in 2030 : HSBC

Still remains vulnerable to climate change

FE Report | October 04, 2018 00:00:00

Bangladesh, which currently occupies the 42nd position among global economies, in terms of size, is likely to improve its ranking, becoming the 26th largest in 2030.

A long-term projection of the HSBC Global Research, unveiled recently, showed the possible economic development of the country.

Bangladesh is set to replace Austria in 2030.

According to HSBC projection, Bangladesh will outshine the Philippines, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Pakistan, Austria, Nigeria, Ireland, Israel, Colombia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Africa, Denmark, Singapore and Finland.

Titled 'The World in 2030,' the bank's research report contains long-term projection for the current 75 top economies of the world.

"China is set to continue to be the single-biggest contributor to global growth over the next decade and by 2030, will have become the world's largest economy," said the report.

"India is set to become the world's third-largest economy in just over a decade, up from seventh today -- leapfrogging the second and third-largest developed economies of Germany and Japan," it added.

"The projections and rankings contained in this report are based on countries' potential to catch up with more developed nations," said the authors of the report.

"It is very clear that a country such as Bangladesh has far more potential for growth than one like Norway, which is far richer."

Bangladesh is also placed as one of the five fastest-growing economies in Asia. Other countries are: India, the Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam.

HSBC's long-term growth model projections for real GDP growth also showed that Bangladesh is on top of the table in this regard. The country is projected to grow above 7.0 per cent annually through 2030.

As per the projection, Bangladesh is the only country to maintain 7.0-plus growth rate annually up to 2030 and even beyond. India is projected to maintain 6.0-plus growth rate but not 7.0 during the period under review.

While set to make a remarkable progress on the economic front, the county is also one of the top five countries projected to be the most vulnerable to environmental disaster and climate change.

"It is notable -- if not surprising -- that four of our top six countries for projected growth -- India, Pakistan, the Philippines and Bangladesh --top a list of 67 countries that our ESG analysts have estimated to be the most vulnerable to climate change," said the report.

The authors of the HSBC projection report laid emphasis on environment and income inequality beside the GDP growth.

"While many governments now have their official statisticians collecting various environmental indicators, from emissions to air and water quality, we can find no example of a country which is incorporating it directly into GDP or related measures," the report said.

Headquartered in London, HSBC is now one of the world's largest banking and financial services organisations.

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