Coincidence?

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Mahmudur Rahman
There is a certain naiveté to the thought that the wave of protests sweeping the middle-east and Islamic world is happening by chance and patriotism. If only this were so. Given that the people of Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Sudan and Libya have distinctly different views to life and its ways there just cannot be a common over night approach to the monarchy or dictatorship that has prevailed in these countries. That would be too much of a coincidence as would the probability of everyone suddenly deciding that now is the time for action.
It would be as naive to presume that normal, day to day earning people would suddenly abandon their livelihoods, risk their families going hungry and paralyse the state. More likely is the proposition that business grinding to a halt in developed countries require finances to jump start their economies and the only way out is a piece of oil rich development work that can only happen if there are changes to the regime.
If democracy is the stated way forward, it does not behove of an army council to come up with constitutional changes. Surely the recent rulings by the Bangladesh Supreme court that any changes made during non-democratic rule have no legal basis is a case in example as to why this cannot be acceptable. And yet western democracies are being quick to urge the ruling authorities to show restraint. Pray why not the demonstrating populace?
The European Union (EU), which has for years stalled the World Trade Organistion (WTO) discussions on the grounds of protectionism by the developing nations (while holding fast to their own form of it by way of subsidies) are suddenly being urged by Nicolas Sarcozy, France's phlegmatic President to think beyond nationalism in collective international interest. That comes after the Group of Twenty (G20), having originally decided to work out ways of reining in rising global food prices and having failed, are now calling for free movement of cheaper grains. That is now being blocked by the few surplus producers including Brazil who don't see why they shouldn't make hay while the sun shines.
Perhaps it isn't out of context either to consider that the countries' where there is unrest, are less affected by price rises compared to the rest of the world. Those who tried to lift subsidies reversed their decision quickly enough putting pressure on their deficits. That's why those interested in doing business find the present the optimum time to create a situation whereby entry is smoother.
Thailand is still paying through its teeth (and extra taxes) for all the trouble created by the red-brigade and prior to that the blue-brigade. What happens in the days ahead may well signal epoch-making changes. And at the same time the trouble could trigger off others in the wrong places. The shoe will pinch and scapegoats will be sought. (The writer can be reached at E-mail : mahmudrahman@gmail.com)