After scorching temperatures in April and May, dengue cases are likely to rise in June, coinciding with the arrival of monsoon, according to entomologists.
They said blistering heat kept the mosquito population in check, while cooler weather and increased rainfall in upcoming months would create ideal breeding conditions for Aedes aegypti -- the mosquito that transmits dengue fever.
Citing a recent survey by the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), the entomologists fear that 2024 could surpass the record-breaking dengue outbreak of 2023.
From January to May 30, the country has reported 36 deaths and over 2,830 dengue hospitalisations, compared to 13 deaths and 1,927 hospitalisations during the same period last year.
"Dengue cases have already overtaken last year's numbers," said public health specialist Prof Dr Be-Nazir Ahmed, a former director at the health directorate.
He told The Financial Express that he feared the situation could worsen in the coming years due to rising mosquito populations.
The pre-monsoon Aedes Survey-2024 conducted by the health directorate found high mosquito larvae density (Breteau index or BI) in several Dhaka neighbourhoods, especially in areas under the Dhaka South City Corporation.
The survey showed an alarming BI of 73.33 per cent in Dhaka south ward number 13. Besides, 18 wards across both city corporations showed BI exceeding 20 per cent.
The survey, conducted between April 17 and 27, also found mosquito larvae in nearly 15 per cent of surveyed homes.
The monsoon season in Bangladesh, usually lasting from July to September, brings not only heavy rains but also ideal breeding conditions for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
While heavy rains and strong winds can disrupt adult mosquito populations, they often leave stagnant water bodies perfect for mosquito larvae to thrive, according to Prof Kabirul Bashar, a renowned medical entomologist.
Prof Bashar's recent survey in several districts, including Barguna, Barisal, Chattogram and Gazipur, showed a BI close to 20 -- a concerningly high density of larvae even before the traditional dengue season begins.
"Such a density even before the dengue season is alarming. We fear that the dengue outbreak would be brutal in June," Prof Bashar told the FE.
Climate change is a contributing factor to the rise in dengue mosquito populations. However, Prof Bashar talked about successful mitigation strategies implemented in neighbouring India's West Bengal.
About the potential outbreak outside of Dhaka, Dr Be-Nazir Ahmed said limited information on dengue prevalence in faraway districts raises red flags. "Rural areas are mostly unprepared," he said. "Municipalities lack the necessary budget, manpower, training and logistics to effectively combat a dengue outbreak."
Government agencies, however, claimed the situation is under control, with adequate resources and plans in place.
However, Prof Dr Be-Nazir Ahmed sounded sceptical on this, as he suggested this stance reflects a denial of the true severity on the ground. "Unless we acknowledge the reality of the situation, we cannot begin to improve it," he noted.
Sher Ali, additional secretary of the Local Government Division, assured that the dengue situation remains under control.
He said they have recently distributed Tk 400 million to municipalities nationwide to support dengue prevention efforts, including cleaning campaigns.
"We don't have any new initiative to control dengue as we believe the existing anti dengue campaign can deal with the prevailing situation," he added.
"However, we will remain vigilant and may reassess our plan and budget if necessary."
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