"Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka are all wooing China for financing their infrastructure projects. China is sitting on a kitty of over $3.0 trillion in reserves and needs to invest its surplus funds. Hence India too is not averse now to utilizing such funds".
This view was expressed by Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka and also a former secretary of the Indian ministry of external affairs (now retired), in a write-up in the op-ed page of Kolkata-based, The Telegraph, in its issue on Thursday.
About the recent visit of the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, to India, agreements, he noted, were signed by India for inviting Chinese investments in infrastructure projects, including the building of industrial parks and the modernization of railways.
"There is little doubt that India has the size and capacity to absorb large investments. Money buys influence and geo-strategic advantages and China is keen that India does not gang up with the US, Japan, Australia and other Asian countries in any formal or informal alliance which smacks of the 'containment' of China that the US's policy of "pivot to Asia', later labelled as 'rebalancing', sought to convey to the world", he observed.
Thus, developments in India-China relations, he added, will impact the so-called "China card" that India's neighbours like to play to leverage their relations with both India and China.
Mr. P. R. Chakravarty noted: "Asia has entered a new phase in the great game of balance of power. A resolution of the India-China border dispute could have a huge impact on India-China relations. Xi's visit has not produced any new initiative on this matter. In fact, Chinese intrusions in Ladakh have not been stopped and indicate that China is not ready to go further down the road to resolve the border issue. The visit has seen only reiteration and willingness to sort out the dispute. No concrete movement is visible. Agreements signed during the visit deal with economic issues, investment, trade, culture, narcotics and education."
The demonstrations by Tibetan refugees in Delhi, according to him, were also a reminder to China that the issue of Tibet remains alive and China has to deal with it in a more innovative manner.
"China has promised to invest $20 billion in India over the next five years. Meanwhile, India has a foreign policy challenge in the decades to come that will require the country to tango with major powers and squeeze out the best deal for the country. Modi may well be the Indian leader who will meet this challenge, poised as he is at a delicate and crucial moment in India's history," he added.
He father stated: "It is in Myanmar on India's eastern flank that Xi's visit seems to be examined threadbare. Myanmar is emerging out of decades of isolation that had pushed the country into a suffocating embrace with China. Myanmar has sought to balance its relationship with China with growing engagement with the rest of the world and with India, in particular."
The recent visit of India's external affairs minister, Sushma Swaraj, for the regional forum meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Naypyidaw, has set the stage for Modi's visit to Myanmar later this year in November, he wrote.
"The opposition of the public and the government to China's vice-like grip on infrastructure projects has reached a tipping point in Myanmar even as China remains Myanmar's most important trading partner and supplier of arms. Yet this has not prevented Myanmar from cancelling an agreement under which China was to build the railway line connecting Kunming in China to Kyaukpyu on the western coastline of Myanmar", he noted.
"The railway was to be built alongside the $1.0 billion gas pipeline project, fully funded by the Chinese government, for supplying gas to China from Myanmar's offshore fields in the Andaman Sea. Growing public opposition to Chinese mega projects began with the cancellation of the multi-billion dollar Myitsone Dam that left China stunned and speechless. China's push into Myanmar is mirrored by China's activity in promoting the economic corridor through Pakistan", he noted further.
"In the East, China also wants to develop an economic corridor through Myanmar to access the Bay of Bengal. The gas pipeline and the railway line are stepping stones for China's geo-economic-strategic plan. The cancellation of the railway project dents this plan to some extent. China has scrambled to renegotiate all these mega infrastructure projects, giving Myanmar additional leverage as well as opening a window for India to ramp up its involvement in Myanmar's infrastructure development and to fill a gap in its Look East Policy," he observed.
Mr. Chakravarty further observed: "It is also significant that Xi's visit to India followed on the heels of the Indian president's visit to Vietnam. China and Vietnam have had testy relations and there has been a series of confrontations over contesting claims of sovereignty regarding disputed islands in the South China Sea. China's egregious claims of sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea have been the cause of tension with several countries in Southeast Asia and also Japan. Hence China cannot but be worried about these countries, which all have disputes with China, willy-nilly coordinating security and defence policies vis-à-vis China."
"India too has a long-standing border dispute with China that continued unabated even as Xi undertook his visit to India. This gives India options of coordinating its policies with these countries. The seeds of an anti-China front have been planted and China will certainly like to avoid this eventuality", he noted.
"The dynamics of the India-China relationship will dictate the future shifts in the balance of power in Asia", he thus encapsulates his write-up.
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