The government plans cuts in upper and lower poverty rates to 16.6 per cent and 8.0 per cent respectively by 2020 under the 7th five-year plan (FYP) being drafted, sources have said.
The government has also set its sight on bringing down the hardcore poverty to the zero level by 2030, according to the sources.
The absolute poverty or upper poverty rate is guesstimated at 23.6 per cent in 2015 and the hardcore poverty or lower poverty rate at 12.3 per cent, according to data available with the General Economics Division (GED).
The absolute poverty rate was 31.5 per cent and hardcore poverty rate 17.6 per cent in 2010, the data showed.
Calculated under the purchasing power parity (PPP) method of the World Bank (WB) that sets an income threshold of $1.25 per person per day, the poverty rate was 43.3 per cent in 2010.
There are two official measuring sticks of poverty in Bangladesh-direct calorie intake and the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN). They both comprise upper and lower poverty lines.
The Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) shows that approximately 17.6 per cent of Bangladesh's population, roughly 26 million people (2.6 crore), were in the grip of extreme poverty.
A household is poor under the upper poverty line, if its per capita calorie intake is less than the per capita nutritional requirement of 2,122 kcal per day. For the lower poverty line the threshold is 1,805 kcal.
Those having the monthly income of less than Tk 1,600 per person will fall under the upper poverty line and those having the monthly income of less than Tk 1,300 per person will be in the hardcore poor bracket.
BBS estimates are based on the CBN method. The base year for calculation of poverty under the CBN method is 2010. It is updated because of the changes in the cost of living using a price index.
As per HIES 2010 poverty in Bangladesh declined at the rate of 1.74 per cent during the period from 2000 to 2010.
The poverty rates as being projected for the five years of the 7th FYP are: absolute poverty and hardcore poverty will be 22.1 per cent and 11.3 per cent respectively in 2016, 20.7 per cent and 10.4 per cent in 2017, 19.3 per cent and 9.6 per cent in 2018, and 18 per cent and 8.8 per cent in 2019. According to experts, the desired calorie intake level for a woman is 1,800 to 2,000 kcal and for a man it is 2,290 to 2,310 kcal.
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the desired level of calorie intake per person per day is 2,290 kcal.
When asked whether the baseline of national poverty was too low and the definition should be reviewed, World Bank's Dhaka office lead economist Zahid Hussain told the FE that it is calculated based on basic needs and their costs. Basic needs vary from country to country.
He said poverty reduction is easier, when there are more poor people, but it is difficult, when they are less. The present 23.6 per cent absolute poverty rate is a projection, and the income of less than Tk 1,600 and Tk 1,300 is applicable to calculation based on the base year of 2010. The figure will be adjusted with the inflation rate.
The HIES data collection was expected to start in October and it would continue for one year. The poverty rate would be updated in 2017 based on the new data and inflation, he added.
However, Planning Commission's General Economics Division (GED) member Shamsul Alam said the actual amount of money that had been considered for measuring poverty would be valid for up to 2015.
Poverty will be measured based on the new income figure, which will be available by the end of 2016 and it is hard to project the inflation rate.
"Whatever be the poverty line, the government's target will be the same," he added.
However, the estimates on the national poverty line based on CBN and calorie intake are much lower than even in the regional countries.
India defines poverty on the threshold of calorie intake of less than 2,155 kcal under the direct calorie intake method, and consumption expenditure of five members per household (including education and health), which is Rs 4,860 for rural areas and Rs 7,035 for urban areas.
Pakistan defines it as per the definition of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) 2011, which is 2,150 kcal per person per day. Bhutan defines it on the threshold of calorie intake of 2,124 kcal and non-food expenditure of 740.36 Ngultrum a month.
Nepal sets the poverty line at 2,709 kcal, Sri Lanka 2,030 kcal and the Maldives considers the income of 10 Maldives rupees a day as hardcore poverty and the income of 15 rupees per day as absolute poverty.
In recent years the Extreme Poverty Research Group (EPRG) demanded redefining extreme poverty. They say that the extreme poor might be defined as those who own less than 0.5 acres of land, less than Tk 20,000 worth of non-land assets and are either wage-labourers or unemployed.
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