Japan's LDP heads for election defeat

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David Pilling, FT Syndication Service
TOKYO: Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party on Sunday night appeared to be headed for a crushing defeat in upper house elections according to exit polls, which predicted a landslide victory for the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan.
Of the 121 seats up for grabs - half the upper house total - exit polls by all the major broadcasters showed the LDP winning 44 seats or less, with the DPJ winning at least 55 and possibly more than 60. Some television polls showed the LDP falling below 40, approaching the worst defeat in its history.
If the polls are right and the DPJ wins a simple majority, it would be the first time an opposition party has single-handedly controlled the upper house since the long-dominant LDP was formed in 1955.
Before the campaign began 17 days ago, many political analysts said Mr Abe might have to quit if his party won fewer than 44 seats - the number that triggered the resignation of the late Ryutaro Hashimoto, former LDP prime minister, in 1998.
However, in recent days, as the scale of the impending defeat began to be apparent, Mr Abe let it be known that he would try to hold on to power however bad the result.
The more powerful lower house controls parliament and Mr Abe cannot be forced to step down even by his own party.
Voters appeared to be punishing Mr Abe's party for a series of scandals that led to the resignation of two cabinet members and the suicide of another, as well as public anger after revelations that the social security agency had lost 50m pension records.

As the scale of the defeat was becoming apparent on Sunday night, Nobutero Ishihara, acting secretary-general of the LDP, said on TV: "The pensions issue was the big issue. We were not able to convince people that the system was stable and we had to devote half our speeches to this issue, meaning we were constantly on the defence. I've never seen anything like it."
However, Mr Ishihara rejected the DPJ's position that the election was a vote of no confidence in Mr Abe, who should resign. "It just so happened that Abe was the helm of the government" when the pension scandal hit, he said, saying he was not directly responsible.
Even If Mr Abe does hang on, he will be regarded as severely weakened since the DPJ-controlled upper house will have the power to slow down the passage of legislation. Mr Abe was made prime minister last September, when his party voted him as the successor of Junichiro Koizumi.
Sunday was the first time the electorate had had a chance to pass its judgement on Mr Abe.