Tradition and policy

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Mahmudur Rahman
After cow talk (read mad-cow), bird talk (read bird flu) and pig talk (read swine flu) we now have ox-talk. Not in the form of an ailment but still as a cause for concern. Each year the royal oxen of Cambodia are taken through a ritual in which they are offered seven specific staple dishes. It is a tradition that has come through centuries and considered an indicative notion of how the crop will fare in any given year. This time round the oxen refused to eat rice, sparking concerns that the Cambodian rice crop this year will not be healthy.
Cambodians will take the matter seriously. For others it will be a myth that has the relevance of usual ones. As a tradition it has far more focus.
Following SIDR and rebuffed by India, Bangladesh looked towards these two countries, Thailand and Myanmar to buy their surplus rice to offset the shortages back home. With two back to back bumper harvests in our country there may not be an immediate concern about rice. It is the future that is worrying. Disappointed farmers are counting their losses in rice and paddy prices being forced as they are to sell to middle-men in the wake of a very slow start of government procurement.
Rice prices, for the first time in many years are being openly subsidized by the government to the extent of nearly Tk. 8.0 per kg. The idea is to incentivise farmers whilst keeping the end-consumer protected against high prices. Decent quality rice is not available below Tk. 22 per kg and the open market price of Tk. 16-18 doesn't seem to have too many takers.
The long term concern will be the farmer's attitude towards rice production next year. Having counted losses from potato and wheat crops, a further setback from rice will invariably push them in to the traditional Bangladeshi concept of agriculture-plant a crop that has returns. In many ways the farmer is finicky. If in one year they don't make money from a particular crop, they will go after another that has done well. That in itself raises headaches for the policy planners.
Meherpur in Kushtia, well known for its tradition of tobacco cultivation has faced erosion in the crop. Better profits from other crops and the growing disillusionment among the younger generation towards farming as a whole are the contributing factors. Where the farmer will concentrate on next is anyone's guess but sugarcane may well evolve as an area. With the government pushing ahead with its election pledge of reopening mills and factories, the sugar manufacturers are seeing new opportunities both in terms of the domestic as well as the export market. For the farmer, that too is a crop that will raise their hopes and bring to the fore the usual connecting issues of cost of inputs and fair-price of produce.
The pivotal question is left hanging in the air. When will the farmer be assured of sustainable and viable income in the wake of so many unfair variables? (The writer is a former head of corporate and regulatory affairs of British American Tobacco Bangladesh and former CEO of Bangladesh Cricket Board. He can be reached at mahmudrahman@gmail.com)