The country's inflationary pressure is likely to intensify in the coming months, as the global and domestic risks continue to augment, economist Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya said on Tuesday.
Dr. Bhattacharya, Convenor of the Citizen Platform for the Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said rising import costs, energy-market volatility and policy constraints are fresh threats to the country's macroeconomic stability.
Speaking at a discussion titled "Thoughts on the First Budget of the New Government" in the city, he urged policymakers to adopt a realistic and reform-oriented fiscal framework in the upcoming budget.
He further said financing the economy through additional borrowing has become increasingly difficult, given Bangladesh's existing debt burden and mounting energy-related liabilities.
Dr. Bhattacharya identified weak revenue mobilisation as a persistent structural challenge, adding that tax collection routinely falls short of budget targets, constraining development spending and undermining fiscal planning.
He also called for broadening the tax base by bringing more individuals and businesses under the tax net, while lowering the burden on compliant taxpayers.
The economist also stressed the need to strengthen institutional processes around budget formulation.
The Coordination Council under the finance division, which typically finalises the budget, should meet more frequently -- at least four times a year -- for the sake of timely reviews and better decision-making, he said.
He noted that recommendations from ongoing economic reform initiatives, including those are related to budgetary management, could be implemented within months if prioritised.
About the external risks, Dr. Bhattacharya warned that a recently signed reciprocal trade agreement with the United States (US) could narrow Bangladesh's energy sourcing options.
The agreement includes provisions restricting trade with countries under US sanctions and categorises certain economies as "non-market", potentially limiting flexibility in procurement.
He described rising subsidy requirements for power, higher energy import bills and increased demand for foreign currency to settle payments as "triple macroeconomic pressures".
"Greater dollar demand for fuel imports will put further downward pressure on the taka," he said.
On public sector wages, Dr. Bhattacharya urged the government to review proposals for a new pay scale introduced by the previous interim administration but left unimplemented.
The earlier government had formed a 23-member National Pay Commission, led by former finance secretary Zakir Ahmed Khan, which recommended a 100 to 140 per cent increase in salaries and allowances for public employees.
Under the proposal, the minimum basic salary would rise from Tk 8,250 to Tk 20,000, while the highest grade would increase from Tk 78,000 to Tk 160,000, with the existing 20-grade structure retained.
Dr. Bhattacharya said the present government should reassess such recommendations through a newly constituted commission before taking a final decision, given the prevailing fiscal pressures.
jasimharoon@yahoo.com