Mango production is expected to rise in Rajshahi and Jashore regions this season while output may decline in Rangpur, raising concerns that the fruit could become costlier in the later months of the season.
Meanwhile, growth in mango exports remains uncertain due to rising air freight charges driven by higher fuel costs amid the ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz blockade, industry insiders said.
The formal harvesting of mangoes began in Rajshahi last week, marking the start of this year's mango season in one of Bangladesh's largest mango-producing regions.
According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), mango cultivation has been carried out on 19,063 hectares of land in Rajshahi district this season, with a production target of 0.244 tonnes.
DAE deputy director Rajshahi Md Nasir Uddin said production is expected to rise 10-12 per cent amid a sound weather while it in an on-year (a year when mango produces well).
However, according to the mango harvesting calendar announced by the district administration, farmers and traders in Rajshahi began collecting guti mangoes from last Thursday.
However, growers said large-scale harvesting would take a few more days as most mangoes are yet to mature fully.
In Chapainawabganj, known as the mango capital, the production target has been set at 0.458 tonnes.
DAE officials said production might exceed 0.47 million tonnes, higher than last year's 0.45 million tonnes. Mangoes have been cultivated on 37,487 hectares of land across the district.
DAE said ripe Guti and Gopalbhog mangoes have already appeared in several orchards since May 14, while harvesting is expected to begin between May 20 and May 25 in the district.
Meanwhile, mango orchards cover 30,310 hectares of land in Naogaon district this year with a production target of 0.387 million tonnes.
Production might remain static in the district this year amid heavy hailstorms in places.
The district is now ranked second in mango production in the country. It is famous for Amrapali variety, the key exportable mango in the country.
According to the DAE, Satkhira, there are 5,299 mango orchards on 4,400 hectares of land in the district this season.
Around 13,100 mango farmers are involved in cultivation, with a production target of 70,000 tonnes. Nearly 60 per cent of the expected production will come from the Himsagar variety.
However, in Rangpur, growers are worried about a possible fall in production due to damage caused by recent nor'wester storms.
According to the Rangpur DAE, commercial cultivation of the famous Haribhanga mango has been carried out on more than 2,000 hectares this year to produce 40,000 tonnes.
Although recent rainfall helped the mangoes grow larger and juicier, severe storms and hailstorms damaged orchards in several areas, raising fears of around 30 per cent production losses.
Growers said Haribhanga mango follows an "on-year" and "off-year" cycle.
This year is considered an "on-year", meaning trees have produced significantly more fruit than last year but the storms put severe blow.
Haider Ali, a mango farmer from Padaganj Haat area in Mithapukur upazila, said weather conditions remain a concern despite good flowering and fruit setting.
Another farmer, Golam Rabbani of Laldighi in Badarganj, said mango production buyers from Dhaka, Chattogram and Sylhet had already started contacting local traders, expressing hope for satisfactory prices and strong demand this season.
However, losses from nor'wester storms have heightened anxiety among farmers.
Rabbani said nearly 100 maunds of mangoes from his three-bigha orchard were destroyed by storms, reducing his expected harvest sharply despite spending around Tk 0.2 million.
Additional Director of Rangpur DAE Sirajul Islam said natural thinning caused by storms could help the remaining mangoes grow larger, and proper care may reduce the overall impact on production.
Meanwhile, despite the optimistic production outlook in some regions, exporters fear the country may struggle to increase overseas shipments because of soaring air cargo charges.
Last year, Bangladesh failed to achieve its mango export targets largely due to high freight costs. This year, exporters say air freight charges have risen to record levels.
Private cargo operators are reportedly charging Tk 505 per kilogram for mango shipments to EU, while the rate through Biman Bangladesh Airlines has reached Tk 580 per kilogram.
Exporter Kawsar Ahmed Rubel said that exports could decline sharply this year if freight costs remain high.
"Our competitors like India and Pakistan can offer mangoes at much lower prices with almost similar taste and quality. Due to freight costs, Bangladeshi mangoes become at least $1 to $1.5 more expensive per kilogram," he said.
Arifur Rahman, director of the Exportable Mango Production Project under the DAE, said authorities are concerned about exporters' difficulties and plan to raise the issue with the Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism at an upcoming meeting on May 21.
tonmoy.wardad@gmial.com