Ruling Awami League may secure 148-166 seats if the upcoming national elections 2024 are held in a free, fair and participatory manner while Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) 119-137 and other political parties 15.
Eminent economist Dr Abul Barkat, also president of Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA), has made the projection based on a research titled 'Voters Mindset and the Possible Outcome of Upcoming National Elections 2024'.
He revealed the research outcome at a seminar and press conference at the BEA office in the capital on Thursday.
The research was conducted based on the 'inferential analysis method' and on a hypothesis that the election will be conducted in a free-, fair and participatory manner.
However, the research outcome presented at the seminar also accommodated the personal opinion of Dr Barkat, who himself replied to a question.
"Of the total 300 parliamentary seats, the fate (results) of 155 constituencies is almost decided as those are considered as base seats of the main political parties of the country," he said.
Of these 155 seats, Awami League is likely to bag 70, BNP 70 and the remaining 15 seats would go to Jatiya Party, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Bangladesh Jatiya Party (BJP), he added.
If any of the two main political parties needs to form government, he said, they would have to secure 81 more seats that are uncertain and depend on voters who are still uncertain about their choices.
He said the uncertain voters would play a key role in the election.
Dr Barkat said high prices of essential commodities, 2018 elections, Israel's war against Palestine, and the US sanctions might play roles as 'objective factors' and 'counter-factors' during the upcoming polls while there are subjective factors like close relationship with society, relatives, friends and advice of senior citizens.
If the findings remain static until the election, there is a chance that AL would be able to form an alliance government, possibly with the Jatiya Party, he added.
General Secretary of BEA Md Aynul Islam and seminar convener Dr Jamaluddin Ahmed FCA were present, among others.
talhabinhabib@yahoo.com