Power contenders Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami both have set forth long-term and ambitious growth narratives built around economic recovery, job creation and structural reform in their election manifestos, less underpinned with politico-ideological overtone.
The competing promises reflect a growing recognition that economic performance, rather than ideology alone, will be decisive in shaping voter sentiment against the backdrop of an uprising fuelled by an overriding grievance over economic discrimination and deprivation.
However, economists find these targets laid down in respective manifestos, rolled out last week, highly ambitious and, to some extent, unrealistic given the available current parameters.
Professor Mostafizur Rahaman, distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), feels that it is assuring that major parties put economic growth at the centre of their manifestos but he points out that growth targets are challenging.
To attain a trillion-dollar economy, which is now worth around 460 billion US dollars, the size needs to be doubled, which means a10-percent growth over the next 10 years, he told the FE, reminding that the current rate is around 5.0 per cent.
He points out that for attaining such a growth, the country will require a substantial rise in private investment-GDP growth of around 40 per cent against the present rate of 24 per cent.
"There should also be a huge rise in the tax-GDP ratio, massive employment generation and inflation reduction to accelerate the growth," he notes.
BNP has pledged to transform Bangladesh into a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, framing the target as the cornerstone of its governing vision if it secures a popular mandate. The party formally unveiled its manifesto at a ceremony in Dhaka's Sonargaon Hotel on Friday, where acting chair Tarique Rahman outlined a roadmap focused on economic reconstruction, employment generation and the creation of an investment-friendly ambience.
Jamaat-e-Islami, meanwhile, has set an even more expansive goal. In its 41-point manifesto, the party has promised to double Bangladesh's economic size to $2.0 trillion by 2040, raise per-capita income to $10,000, and elevate the country from the world's 35th- largest economy to the 20th.
Despite differences in scale and timeframe, both parties emphasise similar pillars: expanding employment, boosting investment, reforming the revenue system and strengthening social protection. Economists note that while the ambitions are eye-catching, their credibility will ultimately depend on policy coherence, political stability and institutional capacity.
BNP's manifesto links economic growth explicitly to democratic governance, arguing that sustainable development requires guaranteed voting rights, the rule of law and an accountable government. The party positions predictable policymaking and the end of arbitrary economic controls as prerequisites for restoring investor confidence.
Employment and production sit at the centre of BNP's economic strategy. The party has pledged to create one million new jobs in the ICT sector, alongside investments in technical and language skills, startup financing and global e-commerce integration. It has also promised to establish regional e-commerce hubs to expand exports of "Made in Bangladesh" products and to espouse international payment systems such as PayPal.
On fiscal policy, BNP aims to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15 per cent by 2035, up from the current level of below 7.0 per cent. Crucially, it claims this will be achieved without increasing the tax burden, instead relying on administrative reform, improved compliance and more efficient revenue collection.
The former ruling party has proposed direct social- assistance programmes, including "Family Card" that would provide low-income households with 2,500 taka per month in cash or essential goods. Farmers would benefit from "Farmer Card", offering access to fair pricing, subsidies, credits, insurance and state-managed market facilities, with similar support extended to fisheries, livestock and small entrepreneurs.
The party has also laid out plans to expand power- generation capacity to 35,000 megawatts by 2030 and increase transmission lines to 25,000 circuit kilometres. Environmental commitments include planting 250 million trees over five years, re-excavating 20,000 kilometres of rivers and canals, and reducing plastic waste by 30 per cent through a three-R (reduce, reuse, recycle) policy.
BNP further identifies the new-generation creative economy-spanning film, music, animation, visual effects, gaming and digital content-as a future growth driver, targeting a 1.5-percent contribution to GDP and the creation of 500,000 jobs by 2035.
Jamaat-e-Islami's manifesto places strong emphasis on rapid growth through investment and trade reform. The party aims to increase foreign direct investment to $15 billion within five years, compared with the current annual inflow of $3-4 billion, and reduce import dependence by 30 per cent.
It has pledged to raise GDP growth gradually to 7.0 per cent, though analysts warn that global economic volatility, export-market pressures and Bangladesh's reliance on imported energy could complicate this trajectory.
On taxation, Jamaat proposes raising the tax-free income threshold to Tk 500,000 and reducing corporate tax to 20 per cent, offering immediate relief to lower- and middle-income groups. However, the manifesto provides little detail on how potential revenue losses would be offset, even as it targets raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 14 per cent- a challenging task given Bangladesh's weak tax base.
One of Jamaat's most striking promises is the creation of 70 million jobs at home and abroad-a figure roughly equivalent to the country's entire labour force. Labour- market analysts describe the target as highly ambitious, stressing the need for clear timelines, sector-specific planning and realistic projections.
The manifesto also pledges reforms in banking and finance, including support for Islamic banking and insurance. Yet persistent challenges-such as non-performing loans, governance weaknesses and liquidity stress-remain largely unaddressed in concrete policy terms.
Jamaat's broad welfare commitments, including free education, healthcare and affordable housing, would significantly expand public spending, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability unless accompanied by strong revenue growth and spending efficiency.
Together, the manifestos illustrate how central the economy has become to Bangladesh's electoral contest. BNP offers a comparatively structured vision anchored in governance reform and policy predictability, while Jamaat advances larger numerical targets with fewer operational details.
Economists agree that the real test will not lie in manifesto pledges but in early policy choices after the election, set for February 12. Whether Bangladesh's next government can translate ambition into credible reform will determine if these trillion-dollar dreams remain political slogans - or become an achievable national trajectory.
mirmostafiz@yahoo.com
© 2026 - All Rights with The Financial Express
