Bangladesh's exporters are bracing for longer shipment lead times and higher freight costs amid fears that an escalation of the Middle East conflict could disrupt key global trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Businesses say prolonged instability may suspend flights through major Gulf transit hubs, delay cargo movement, inflate freight charges, and disrupt energy supplies, thus putting fresh pressure on an already fragile external trade sector.
Industry leaders warn that any shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, will sharply raise transport costs.
A significant portion of vessels sailing from the Chittagong Port to Europe pass through the strait.
If the route becomes inaccessible, ships will have to reroute via longer corridors, such as the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by thousands of kilometres and driving up freight expenses.
Business leaders stress that the broader geopolitical fallout, rather than direct trade exposure to Iran, poses the greater threat to Bangladesh's export competitiveness and shipment lead times.
The government, however, says it is closely monitoring the situation.
Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman says the authorities are assessing developments in the Middle East and preparing contingency measures.
"We held discussions at our respective levels on Saturday night and are now working on plans to ensure the supply chain remains smooth," he said on Sunday.
Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, says Bangladesh's direct trade with Iran is limited, but the indirect fallout could be significant.
"We have yet to fully recover from the shock of the Russia-Ukraine war. Fresh geopolitical tensions could once again destabilise global trade," he said, adding that longer shipping routes would inevitably increase both costs and delivery times.
Exports to Europe are particularly vulnerable, as buyers often rely on air freight to meet tight delivery deadlines.
However, airspace closures across parts of the Middle East have already disrupted cargo flights, creating uncertainty for time-sensitive shipments.
Two global shipping giants - CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd - have reportedly suspended navigation through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.
Faruque Hassan, former president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), says the conflict could have multi-layered impacts, particularly as several regional air routes remain disrupted.
"The prolonged conflict will create further difficulties at a time when we were expecting a business rebound," he said, expressing hope for a swift resolution.
Shovon Islam, managing director of Sparrow Group, also warned of prolonged uncertainty in global commerce.
He urged the government to engage with the Indian authorities to restore alternative transit facilities for air shipments, as exporters heavily depend on Middle Eastern hubs for cargo destined for Western markets.
Former BGMEA director Mohiuddin Rubel cautioned that tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could push up global oil and gas prices.
Higher fuel import bills would increase pressure on electricity generation costs, trade balance, and inflation, potentially slowing overall economic growth, he said.
Businesses also fear possible disruptions in imports of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Middle East.
Prime Minister's Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir, however, said there was no immediate reason for concern over fuel supplies, noting that the country currently held adequate reserves.
Although the Strait of Hormuz remains a vital global energy corridor, Bangladesh's bilateral trade with Iran is minimal.
Official data shows exports to Iran - mostly jute yarn - reached $10.9 million in FY25, while imports stood at $0.5 million.
Bilateral trade between the two countries has remained largely stagnant for years.
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