The Middle East crisis surrounding Iran-Israel-USA war has been showing little signs of easing. It has been causing losses of thousands of human lives and billions of dollar worth of property. Already the world energy market has been facing serious supply chain disruptions triggering sharp rise in the prices of Octane, petrol, diesel, Jet fuel, LPG, LNG and other petroleum products.
Countries in South-East and South Asia have been compelled to introduce fuel rationing for consumers. The developed and industrially advanced economies have been expressing their concerns of looming economic crisis, inflation pressure and lower growth of economy due to the escalation of war and the rise of oil price. Many countries have already introduced energy conservation measures including 'work from home' and 'reduction of vehicular movement on the road to reduce fuel usage' as emergency measures to combat oil demands. Iran has warned that it would strike energy and water infrastructure (the Gulf states are heavily reliant on desalinisation plants for their sweet water supply from these plants) across the Gulf if US President Trump follows through his threat to attack (issued on March 21, 2026) its electricity infrastructures. It may be mentioned that the President Trump set a deadline (of 2345GMT (7:45 PM Bangladesh Time), March 23, 2026) to attack Iran's electricity infrastructure unless the authorities in Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within next 48 hours.
International Energy Agency (IEA) considers that the Middle East conflicts have severely damaged at least 40 energy assets in the Gulf region and they would not be immediately restored for energy supply. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, 'the growing fallout could be seriously compounded through interruptions of the vital arteries of the global economy, including petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur and helium.'
Bangladesh has been suffering from manifold economic crises including high inflation, poor investment, massive unemployment and social stresses for last couple of years. The war in the Middle East has virtually blocked the Strait of Hormuz and growing fuel prices have been threatening further economic and social crises in the country. In Bangladesh, fuel oil supply shortages have been felt as several fuel pimps remain closed over two weeks. The pumps which are operating so far have been handling several kilometer-long queues for vehicles wanting to buy fuel oil. LGED Minister and the Ruling BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir raised alarm that the war had been casting serious damage for our country. He felt that the prices for fuel oil and other commodities would increase in the days to come. Bangladesh government has been searching for alternative supply sources for fuel oil and LNG. However, the sources are limited and supply chain disruptions in the Middle East squeezes alternative markets for oil and gas.
Bangladesh imports major share of LNG from Qatar and Oman, the two countries in the Gulf. Both the countries are heavily dependent for exports through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Qatar, the main LNG exporter has suffered from the air borne attacks (at the Ras Laffan Gas processing industry in Qatar) and was compelled to temporarily shut its LNG production. Moreover, the missile attacks had damaged its LNG production plan and the plant's 17 per cent capacity had been damaged. Restoration of the LNG plant's capacity would take several months after the war ends. On the other hand, domestic natural gas production in Bangladesh has been steadily declining and declined to approximately 1,900 MMCFD (against the daily average demands for 3,800 MMCFD). LNG price has nearly doubled in the spot market (also significantly dependent on the Middle East supply). Petrobangla sources inform that Bangladesh has purchased 2 LNG cargos from the spot market in a desperate effort at over US$28 per MMBTU, while another at US$24 per MMBTU in the first week of March 2026. The price for LNG was below $10 per MMBTU on March 1, 2026. Energy Secretary Saiful Islam said to local media that the global LNG market became unstable following the damage at the Qatar's energy facilities. He added, 'we are buying spot LNG at an exorbitant price, which is almost 2.5 times higher than the price four days ago'. Petrobangla had to go to the spot LNG market as the QatarEnergy was scheduled to supply under contract with Petrobangla 40 out of the country's planned 115 LNG cargoes this year. But the war has pushed the supply to uncertainty. QatarEnergy had formally notified Petrobangla on March 2, 2026 the force majeure. Qatar plays a critical role in the global LNG market accounting for approximately 20 per cent of global LNG supply and the disruption of LNG supply from Qatar has already triggered sharp price spikes in global gas market.
Import of LPG (98 per cent of Bangladesh LPG demand has been met by Middle East based shipments) is also dependent mainly on the Gulf area supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Freight costs have been rising for LPG imports too.
BPC reserves of crude oil is not huge. Eastern Refinery (ERL), the sole refinery under Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has a capacity to refine 1.5 million tons of crude oil. The ERL can process light crude supplied by Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Again, the supply comes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Due to crisis in the region crude oil supply has become uncertain. The existing reserve for diesel, petrol, octane, furnace oil has been declining (ERL productions can meet approximately 20 per cent of Bangladesh's total fuel oil demand and the balance is imported as finished products). The finished petroleum products are imported from different supply sources of the East Asian, South Asian and Middle Eastern countries. However, the Strait of Hormuz alone supplies approximately 20 per cent of all kinds of petroleum products in the global market. Hence, the crisis and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz destabilised supply chain pushing the petroleum product price in the market.
Published information indicates that Bangladesh had a demand of 6.83 million tonnes of petroleum products during FY 2024-2025. ERL supplied 1.25 million tones and the balance was met by imports (during FY2024-2025 BPC imported 1,520,994 metric tons of crude oil and 4,704,985 metric tonns of refined oil). Installed storage capacity for petroleum products in the country is approximately 1.57 million metric tonnes. It has been felt that a second refinery would greatly ease and diversify country's petroleum product supply chain. The government has been actively trying to materialise the ERL expansion project to double its present refining capacities. BPC intends to install the ERL Unit 2 with a crude oil refinery capacity 3.0 million tonnes per annum by 2030 with an estimated cost of 2.89 billion US dollars (approximately 354.65 billion taka). An Islamic Development Bank (ISDB) mission has in principle agreed to provide Bangladesh a loan of US$ 1.0 billion in phases for implementing the project. The loan Agreement is expected to be signed in April this year. The project is planned to be implemented within 2030.
Mushfiqur Rahman is a mining engineer. He writes on energy and environment issues.
mushfiq41@yahoo.com