Scenario for India, NZ, Afghanistan to make semifinals

Party without host?

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FE Team | Published: November 01, 2021 23:52:34

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The business end of the Twenty20 World Cup risks becoming a party without a host with timid India staring at an early exit from the tournament they were expected to dominate, report agencies.
New Zealand's thumping win against India has put them in pole position to qualify as the second team from Group 2. Pakistan should top the group, given that they have two relatively easier games coming up. The margin of defeat against New Zealand also means India's net run rate (NRR) has taken a beating, and they now depend on other results going their way.
Here is how things stack up for the three teams which are likely to be fighting for the second slot - New Zealand, Afghanistan and India.
Following two losses - one a 10-wicket loss to Pakistan and then followed by an 8-wicket loss to New Zealand - India have put their chances of qualifying into the semi-finals in serious doubt. India started as tournament favourites, or at least as one of them, but are now on the brink of a humiliating exit.
India now face an uphill task of making a third successive T20 World Cup semifinal at the ongoing edition of the tournament in the UAE.
While India has lower-ranked opponents up next, it will need to win all its remaining matches and expect other results to go in its favour.
The Men in Blue will need to beat Afghanistan, which is placed second on the table with a net run-rate (NRR) of (+3.097), Scotland and Namibia by big margins to improve its own NRR.
For India to stand a slim chance, New Zealand must beat Afghanistan but not by a big margin, and in the unlikeliest of scenarios, one of Namibia and Scotland need to pull off an upset against the Kiwis.
Even if all these results go India's way, then New Zealand and India will finish with six points each. Thereby it would all come down to the NRR to decide the second semifinalist.
Another scenario is if India beat Afghanistan by a huge margin and Afghanistan beats New Zealand, all three teams will finish on six points, where the NRR will come into play to decide the second semifinalist.
From New Zealand perspective, the run chase in 14.3 overs against India means New Zealand's NRR has improved to 0.765. If they win their remaining games they will qualify regardless of other results. Among their three remaining opponents Afghanistan is easily the toughest, and if they lose that game they could still miss out on qualification, depending on other results.
The schedule for their next three games isn't the easiest: they play day games with a one-day gap at three different venues - against Scotland in Dubai on November 3, against Namibia in Sharjah on November 5, and against Afghanistan in Abu Dhabi on November 7.
Afghanistan have done their best to maximise the gains from their matches against Scotland and Namibia, which is why their NRR is sitting pretty at 3.097. The two remaining games for them are against two of the bigger teams, India and New Zealand.
If they win both, they will qualify. If they lose to India and beat New Zealand, then run rates will probably come into play. Afghanistan's schedule could be an advantage: they beat Namibia in Abu Dhabi, and they stay there for their last two games as well.