Experts have expressed concerns over the possibility of poverty level going up due to the climate change effect combined with the Covid pandemic which will ultimately create a cyclical poverty and it will be difficult to lift people out of it.
The average annual gross loss caused by climate change-induced cyclones and tidal surges in Bangladesh is 2.2 per cent of the GDP (gross domestic product).
By 2030, each year additional 0.6 million (six lakh) people will be at risk of cyclones and tidal surges caused by the climate change. It will result in an increased poverty level of over 15 per cent, fall in rice and wheat production by 8.0 per cent and 32 per cent respectively, a rise in the frequency of floods in coastal areas and an epidemic of malaria in those regions.
At present, it is found that prevalence of hypertension and miscarriage is high among coastal region women due to intrusion of saline water. More and more people are being displaced in coastal regions as the embankments are not being constructed sustainable for their protection.
These were revealed Wednesday during a presentation made on 'Disaster Management and Good Governance in Climate Funding: Workshop on Investigative Journalism for Mass Media' by senior programme manager of climate finance governance M Zakir Hossain Khan.
Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) organised the online workshop for media personalities.
Bangladesh is already hard hit by the Covid-19 pandemic which has pushed up the overall poverty level. The government claims that the overall poverty level was 21 per cent during the pre-Covid period.
The government research organization Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) revealed recently that over 16 million people slipped below the poverty line during the pandemic raising the poverty level to 29 per cent. However, the private think-tank Centre for Policy Dialogue said the poverty level rose to 35 per cent during the pandemic.
Mr Zakir said that the projection of poverty level rise by 15 per cent due to the climate change in Bangladesh was made in the IPC report of 2014. But the poverty level will rise by more than 15 per cent by 2030 as cyclical poverty will rise due to both Covid-19 and climate change it will be difficult for those victims to get out of the vicious cycle.
"There are many reasons why the poverty level will rise. Many people who were left employed in the informal sector have already lost their income. If they fall victim to climatic impacts like cyclones, they will lose the rest of their capital, which will weaken their capital base," said Mr Zakir.
Mere social protection will not be enough to get these new poor out of the vicious poverty cycle. They will need interest-free capital transfer, skill development for alternative income generation, capacity building, resilient housing and risk protection insurance schemes, if they stay in the natural disaster-prone areas.
Mr Zakir suggested allocation of government funds in climate change- related projects in the areas, considering the type of disaster risk they run.
When asked, Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) executive chairman Hossain Zillur Rahman told the FE that the projection of a higher poverty level is a kind of warning so that the government takes necessary pragmatic steps to combat climate-induced poverty. In reality no such measures are visible, added.
"We do not see that much effort on climate risk mitigation as there are a number of coal-fired power plant projects here. Besides, the climate risk issue has not got any importance in the poverty reduction strategy paper as it should be," said the development activist.
It has become very urgent to include the climate risk in the poverty reduction strategies, make the urbanisation process more climate responsive and protect the coastal regions by investing to protect the people from disasters.
"We have an anti-poor urbanisation policy as more people shift towards urban areas after any disaster and concentrate in some areas. Besides, the authorities are receiving huge allocations every year in the name of embankment repair without any functional and sustainable solution," he said.
There was no big investment as such in coastal embankments after 90s, said Mr Zillur. The protection now the coastal people are getting is very temporary and no permanent solution is there, he added.
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