Moderna reins in 2024 sales forecast, expects very low EU vaccine revenue

FE Team | Published: August 01, 2024 23:24:15

WASHINGTON, Aug 01 (Reuters): Moderna on Thursday cut its 2024 sales forecast for COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus vaccines by up to 25 per cent, or $1 billion, as it expects very low sales to the EU, sending the shares of vaccine maker down nearly 11 per cent before the bell.
The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company had previously said it expected roughly $4 billion in sales for the year, which was already the lowest figure for annual revenue since it launched its Covid vaccine in late 2020 - the company's first commercial product.
Moderna reported a net loss of $1.3 billion, or $3.33 per share, for the second quarter. Analysts had expected a loss of $3.39 per share, according to LSEG data.
Total revenue for the second quarter was $241 million, compared to $344 million, a year ago.
The company said it now expects to make between $3 billion and $3.5 billion in sales for the year following discussions with EU officials over Covid-19 vaccine contracts for the bloc.
Moderna Chief Financial Officer James Mock told Reuters it had yet to secure a joint purchasing agreement with the EU, although it was still in discussions.
"Given where we are in the season combined with where we are in the budget season for many countries and their existing supplies, we feel there's a very low probability that we'll have very much (EU) sales in 2024," he said.
Moderna said it had also cut its forecast due to potential revenue deferrals for some Covid international sales into 2025 and an increasingly competitive environment for both Covid and RSV vaccines in the US
Those deferrals were one of the biggest factors in the $500 million range Moderna gave in its new 2024 sales forecast, the CFO said.
Moderna has been banking of revenue from newer mRNA shots, including its RSV vaccine mRESVIA and an experimental Covid-flu combination vaccine, to make up for waning demand for its Covid-19 shot.
Mock said the company still expects to return to sales growth in 2025.
Analysts this week said they expected sales of Moderna's mRESVIA, its second approved product, to lag RSV shots from rival drugmakers Pfizer and GSK this year.
They forecast $370 million in 2024 sales of mRESVIA, which was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration on May 31, compared with a combined $1.2 billion for the GSK and Pfizer RSV shots, according to LSEG data.
Moderna said it started shipping doses of mRESVIA in the US last month, following June recommendations from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention that RSV shots be given to adults aged 60 and over who did not get a vaccine last year.