Mumbai carnage: India to watch its steps

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Enayet Rasul
Undoubtedly, the blood-letting in Mumbai is similar to the demolition of the Twin Towers in the USA that started a train of events causing great angst in international relations, the rapid decline of the image of the US and a so called uncalled for confrontation between the West and Muslim. But the world is hardly better-off as a result. There is also lingering suspicion whether the destruction of the Twin Towers and related activities, were designed to give the perfect excuse to the Bush administration to launch their aggressive wars abroad on the plea of the threat against homeland USA from Islamic terrorism.
One may question, therefore, whether the attacks in Mumbai is part of a similar calculated move to reverse the process of peace and normalization of relations in South Asia and usher in a period of animosities and conflict afresh. If it is accepted to be so, then it needs pondering who would want such a destabilization and what are their objectives.
Obviously, the question that would be uppermost in the minds of careful analysts of the incidents is : to what extent the staging of the bloody acts are limited to essentially India-grown splinter groups of terrorists or whether the scale and execution of the violence so devastatingly and expertly suggest the involvement of an external hand. If there was an external involvement, then who are they under their masks and what they seek to achieve ?
Therefore, the Indian government as well as the media and civil society in India ought to take time to scrutinize all aspects to the issue. They must not jump to conclusions. Rather they need to be patient, clinically unemotional and obsessed with getting irrefutable information about the identities and motives of the attackers before deciding on a response. It is notable that the Bush administration has spontaneously expressed solidarity with India in the wake of the Mumbai happenings. President Bush was even quoted as saying that he expects India to become now a full fledged partner of the USA in fighting Islamic terrorism. But would it be in the vital interests of India to jump on to the US bandwagon -- immediately-- without analyzing all the angles ? The US will no doubt gain from India promptly singing its song that it was an act by terrorists linked to Al Queda. This would set the stage for India's full fledged military involvement with US forces in Afghanistan and elsewhere in Asia. But such an association with the USA would be hardly in the longer term vital interest of India. It would be draining its resources at a time when its economy is on the move up. The emerging Indian economy will certainly not be better off with the South Asian region facing insecurity and destability and spending on the military shooting up at the cost of economic development. The US will have found a partner to fight its battles in South Asia but the costs of doing this for the latter could be regrettably much higher than the former.
It was very notable that the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, in his brief address to the nation, warned neighbouring countries if they had any hand in the Mumbai carnage. He did not name a country specifically but he could not have been thinking of anybody else but Pakistan when he warned the neighbours. But no other neighbour of India has any capacity to stand up to India or suffers from a background of conflicts and bad neighbourliness with it. Therefore, it is only natural to think that the Indian Prime minister was warning--really-Pakistan for the Mumbai incidents.
But he should have been much more careful. Pakistan for some years remains engaged in normalization of relations with India. India also reciprocated to Pakistani overtures for peace and cooperation and appreciated the merit of this course as best serving the strategic and economic interests of both countries. Besides, Pakistan at present is facing a very difficult situation politically and economically. It cannot logically have even the least desire to stoke up troubles in India and invite the latter's wrath in its weakened conditions, Besides, it now has a civilian government which cannot order any such adventuristic attacks of the sort suffered by Mumbai. Such things as the Kargill attack by Pakistan forces could be contemplated when Pakistan was being ruled by a military government like the one of former President Musharaff. But even Musharaff would have nothing to do with terrorist attacks on civilians. The Kargill war in Kashmir was a sheer military operation. The security forces in Pakistan these days are themselves carrying out operations against terrorists and suffering casualties and other losses. Thus, it makes no sense for the Indian Prime Minister to even remotely think that Pakistan as a country or its government, had anything to do with the Mumbai carnage.