General (retd) Pervez Musharraf has been exercising overlordship over the affairs of Pakistan for nine long years till his resignation which was really the outcome of arm twisting of him from behind the wings to do so. The days now after Musharraf's exit are expected to be a watershed period in Pakistan's history. Turning in the right direction , Pakistanis are expected to resume a healthier democratic march away from authoritarian or despotic governance sweeping aside the unhealthy legacy of the Musharraf period, according to some analysts.
But others would surely contend that this is but an oversimplified assumption about the future of that long troubled country. Pakistanis in recent times appeared to be united only on one point or so was the version of various foreign commentators on Pakistan's affairs. This was: the exit of Musharraf from power in that country as if all ills that it suffered was solely because of him and his departure would pave the way for the flowering of all things to be counted as positive developments in Pakistan.
There could be no worse observation about Pakistan than this for its short-sightedness and lack of objectivity. For it is indeed regrettable that in recent years Musharraf came to be linked with all the unhappiness that has been sweeping Pakistan. But the reality is Pakistanis are suffering because of multiple factors in which Musharraf has had only a part to play. Thus, this tendency of blaming Musharraf for everything that went wrong there, was like an obsession and also a poor one for that matter. But obsessions that wrongly affect the vision and identification of real problems facing a nation can be very dangerous for it. For Pakistanis to think that the ouster of Musharraf will make the way smoother for their national revival, this is too simplistic an aspiration in view of the many serious and complex handicaps which are largely ones of their own making. Pakistanis must take a cold and hard look inwards at their own obsessions, failings and support for militant Islamists which are not helping them to become more secure and stronger as a nation.
When the 61 years old country became independent from Britain, it was headed by an immaculately dressed person in Western clothes who has had a good British education. Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan, certainly struggled very hard to get a homeland for the Indian subcontinent's Muslims on practical grounds. But he was a modernist and progressive through and through. The establishment of a theological state or one dominated by religious orthodox elements, was furthest from his mind.
Pakistan made a start under him with a view to becoming a modern and democratic polity. But six decades down the road, the country has become infested by Islamic militants many of them of the Taleban variety. Radical Islam pulsates in the bosoms of a worryingly large number of Pakistanis today. They do not mind hobnobbing with Al-Queda and the Talebans and consider their alliance with the USA on terrorism as a wrong one. Most of them would rather want a u-turn with Pakistan engaging in greater activism as a new centre of Islamic radicalism. Extremists forces and thoughts in the name of Islam are well entrenched in Pakistan today that would pose a threat to liberal and democratic forces.
This evolution of Pakistan from a post-colonial entity in 1947 that aspired for the western elective and democratic model to one inclined considerably towards Islamic extremism as evident in the thought process and behaviour of a significant number in its population, constitutes the worst element of instability and lack of sustainable peace in that country. The going away of Musharraf will not help things any in this area. Rather, the leaving of Musharraf who played a tough suppressive role against the extremists, will only embolden the latter to try and spread their influence and power. The relatively softer response to the extremist elements by the successors of Musharraf, might only provide greater opportunities to the extremists to consolidate and strengthen their positions.
It is ironic that even many of Pakistan's best educated persons have a rather confused view of the future. A survey was carried out sometime ago by a US based research group. They put their question among a large number of well educated Pakistanis about what force or philosophy should guide developments in their country. The respondents to this question were expected to say that they wanted modern education, science and technology, good governmental policies, etc., to be the guiding factors. But instead, they overwhelmingly expressed the opinion that they considered ' Islam or more application of Islam as the cure for all the ills that Pakistan was facing.' Thus, the greatest threat to Pakistan stems from its population not having clear visions about what they want. There is probably a better view of the future but the ones having such a view are minorities.
President Musharraf, notwithstanding his alleged tyrannies and dictatorship, was a force for stability and security in Pakistan. He acquired a tottering and about to collapse Pakistan economy when he took over and turned it into a relatively much stronger one. Pakistan had steady and good growth under him except for some months in 2008 when the political violence trigged by his opponents, peaked. There has been no mentionable allegation of corruption also against Musharraf and he was singularly noted for trying to reform the madrashas which have proved to be the breeding grounds of terrorism.
But now, the successors of Musharraf will be hard pressed to even provide a reasonably stable government. It is doubted whether Nawaz Sharif and Zardari will be mature enough to set up and work a stable coalition government even in the short term. They appeared united only in their hatred for Musharraf but do not seem to have any sound agenda on what tasks they must accomplish together in the highest interests of their country and the people after Musharraf. With the unifying factor of Musharraf gone, they are likely to fall apart and restart their feuding.
Meanwhile, the Pakistan economy has been declining even as the resignation or impeachment of Musharraf was discussed. The rate of inflation in Pakistan is 24 per cent now which is the highest recorded level of inflation in South Asia. All of these adverse economic developments date back from the time of the last held Pakistan elections about six months ago that led to anti-Musharraf elements taking over reins of running the country with its economy leaving Musharraf only as President with restricted powers and hardly any role in day to day governance of the country. But their rule has already reflected their incompetence in economic governance.
