LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters): The US and China on downgrade warnings, Turkey hoping for its first upgrade in a decade and Israel facing its first cut - plus more than 50 elections to navigate - means 2024 could bring pivotal moves in some sovereign credit ratings.
Next year might be starting with highest share of "stable" sovereign ratings for years, but with record debts now meeting higher borrowing costs, spluttering growth and multiple wars, there are big names are in play.
Moody's has negative outlooks on both the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies. A downgrade would cost the US its only remaining triple-A rating.
Marie Diron at Moody's said it wants to see if Washington can address a threatened "very steep deterioration in debt affordability" and whether China can stop its property and local government debt woes worsening.
Fitch, which downgraded the US in August, and S&P Global are also keeping a close eye as November's presidential election approaches.
"Many of the factors we pointed to with the (U.S) downgrade remain in effect," Fitch's Ed Parker said, explaining that higher interest rates, defence spending and an aging population would all keep US debt levels rising.
Fitch sees Chinese growth dipping to 4.5 per cent-5 per cent but has also modelled a "hypothetical stress scenario" where the property sector and other problems cause it crater to just 1.5 per cent and only recover to 2 per cent in 2025.
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