LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 18 (Reuters): Asia's imports of US crude oil, coal and liquefied natural gas are on track to decline this year despite President Donald Trump's efforts to boost shipments as part of his trade and tariff policies.
The decline in imports from the United States is largely driven by China, the world's biggest buyer of commodities, which pulled back on purchases after Trump ramped up tariffs on US imports of Chinese goods, with the current average rate around 47.5 per cent.
Asia's imports of US crude oil are expected to reach 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from 1.56 million bpd in 2024 and the record 1.65 million bpd in 2023, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
The biggest importer is South Korea, one of the countries that committed to buying more US energy as part of a trade deal with the Trump administration.
However, South Korea's imports of US crude oil are likely to show a tiny increase in 2025 to 470,000 bpd from 465,000 bpd last year.
Japan, which also agreed to boost imports of US energy, did show a significant increase in imports of crude oil, with 84,500 bpd arriving in 2025, up from 34,000 bpd in 2024.
However, Japan's total crude imports in 2025 are about 2.25 million bpd, meaning the US share amounts to a paltry 3.8 per cent.
China imported just 38,350 bpd from the United States in 2025, down 84 per cent from 245,100 bpd in 2024 and 400,000 bpd in 2023, according to Kpler.
It is much the same story with LNG, with China's imports from the United States dropping to 250,000 tons in 2025, down 94 per cent from the 4.30 million tons in 2024.
Asia's LNG imports from the United States, the world's biggest exporter of the super-chilled fuel, dropped to 19.08 million tons in 2025 from 29.78 million in 2024.
Japan was the biggest buyer, but its arrivals slipped to 4.49 million tons in 2025 from 6.50 million in 2024.
Another country that took significantly less US LNG was India, with imports dropping to 2.93 million tons in 2025 from 5.01 million in 2024, according to Kpler.
Trump imposed import tariffs of as much as 50 per cent on goods from India amid a breakdown in relations with New Delhi over its ongoing purchases of Russian crude oil.
But the trade relationship between Washington and India hasn't completely broken down as India lifted imports of coal from the United States, with arrivals of 21.07 million tons this year, up from 18.77 million in 2024.
India is by far the biggest buyer of US coal in Asia, with a 61 per cent share of 2025 imports.
This makes US coal exports to Asia vulnerable should the trade dispute between Washington and New Delhi escalate in 2026.
Other major Asian buyers of US coal are Japan and South Korea, and their imports only increased fractionally.
Japan's 2025 imports of US coal are forecast at 4.44 million tons, up from 4.40 million in 2024, while South Korea is expected to take 1.59 million, an increase from 1.29 million in 2024.
Japan agreed to purchase an annual $7 billion in US energy as part of its deal with Trump, which was reached in September.
This means that 2025 imports won't fully reflect this commitment, but they do show that Japan will have to boost its imports in 2026 if it is to reach the target.
Using average prices for US crude oil, Japan's LNG imports and seaborne thermal and metallurgical coal, the estimated value of Japan's imports of US energy in 2025 is about $5.32 billion.
Increasing this to $7 billion next year is feasible, although given Japan's stagnant energy demand, any increase in imports from the United States would mean cutting purchases from other suppliers.
This dynamic underscores the larger problem with Trump using tariffs to encourage countries to buy more US energy.
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