Global oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030: IEA -

FE Team | Published: October 25, 2023 23:26:38

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters): World fossil fuel demand is set to peak by 2030 as more electric cars hit the road and China's economy grows more slowly and shifts towards cleaner energy, the International Energy Agency said, undercutting the rationale for any rise in investment.
The report from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, contrasts with the view of oil producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which sees oil demand rising long after 2030 and calls for trillions in new oil sector investment.
In its annual World Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, the IEA said peaks in oil, natural gas and coal demand were visible this decade in its scenario based on governments' current policies - the first time this has happened.
"The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it's unstoppable. It's not a question of 'if', it's just a matter of 'how soon' - and the sooner the better for all of us," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
"Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them."
A chart in the IEA's report showed world demand for the three fossil fuels peaking by 2030. While coal use enters a steep decline after 2030, gas and oil use remains close to peak level for the next two decades.
Still, the IEA also said as things stand, demand for fossil fuels is set to remain far too high to keep within reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
"This risks not only worsening climate impacts after a year of record-breaking heat, but also undermining the security of the energy system, which was built for a cooler world with less extreme weather events," the agency said in a statement.
By 2030, the IEA expects there to be almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide, and it cited policies supporting clean energy in key markets as weighing on future fossil fuel demand. For example, the IEA now expects 50 per cent of new US car registrations will be electric in 2030, up from 12 per cent in its outlook two years ago, largely as a result of the US Inflation Reduction Act.