OPEC trims oil demand for next four yrs, says no peak in sight

FE Team | Published: July 10, 2025 21:25:47

VIENNA, July 10 (Reuters): OPEC cut its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years on Thursday as Chinese growth slows, even as it lifted its longer-term view, based on rising consumption in the developing world, and said there was no sign oil use had reached its peak.
The OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, is pumping more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts to support the market. Lower medium-term demand could make it harder for the group to unwind its other cuts, which remain in place until the end of 2026.
World demand will average 105 million barrels per day this year, OPEC said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook published on Thursday. It expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and then climb to 111.6 million bpd in 2029.
The forecasts for demand in 2026 through 2029 are all lower than last year. Demand will average 106.3 million bpd in 2026, OPEC said, down from 108 million bpd seen last year. The 2029 forecast is down 700,000 bpd from last year's figure.
Compared with other forecasters, OPEC expects demand to grow for a longer period. BP and the International Energy Agency expect oil use to peak this decade.
"Oil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives," said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in the foreword to the report. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon."
OPEC is launching the report at a biennial OPEC seminar in Vienna, which brings together oil ministers and executives. OPEC has withheld access to the seminar to reporters from Reuters and several other news organisations. OPEC declined to comment on why it was doing this.
In the report, OPEC said demand had completed its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a more predictable outlook. Growth is also slowing in China, OPEC said, the country that has driven oil use higher for the last few decades.
"This comes on the back of slower economic growth, the faster penetration of EVs and related charging infrastructure and continued oil substitution in several sectors," OPEC said with reference to China.