US President Donald Trump's push to end Washington's reliance on Chinese critical minerals by January is colliding with a stark reality: American miners and processors aren't ready, reports Reuters.
Trump has made US mining and processing of critical minerals a national security priority since returning to office, pouring tens of billions of dollars into nearly 150 minerals companies to loosen China's grip on supply chains for weapons and other strategic products.
The defense industry and other manufacturers are now just over five months away from a January 1, 2027, deadline under federal regulations to stop purchasing rare earths, magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum from China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. Washington has been trying to limit such imports for years but has routinely granted companies waivers because the US supply can't meet the demand.
Trump railed against such waivers in a May 10 post on his Truth Social platform, saying: "ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES MUST BUY AMERICAN - NO EXCUSES!" Last Monday, he signed an executive order making it even harder for defense contractors to obtain waivers.
But the reality is that US minerals companies are nowhere close to meeting domestic needs, according to interviews with 16 industry executives, investors, analysts and policymakers.
In 2025, US demand for the most-common type of rare earth magnet, for example, was roughly 48,000 metric tons while domestic sources supplied 300 metric tons, according to data from the Arthur D. Little consultancy. US firms are on track to have the capacity to produce 5,000 metric tons by year-end.
Rare earths, which are among the 60 minerals considered critical by Washington, must be processed before they are turned into magnets used to make weapons, automobiles, computers and other products.
US firms haven't produced tungsten since 2015 and tantalum since 1959. Guardian Metal Resources is working to open a US tungsten mine by 2028, while Lion Rock Resources is developing a tantalum mine in South Dakota, with no timeline for opening.
Chris Berry, a minerals industry analyst and consultant, said the US industry has little chance of producing enough minerals to end waivers by January.
"It's going to take many more years to get the needed infrastructure in the ground to compete," said Berry.
The United States has reserves of most critical minerals; what it lacks is the capacity to mine and process many of them. China grew to dominate the minerals-refining industry in the late 20th century and controls more than 80 per cent of the sector today. The International Energy Agency warned this month that $6.5 trillion of global manufacturing is at risk if Beijing imposes export restrictions on rare earths, as it has periodically in recent years.
Asked for comment, the White House referred to Trump's executive order, which says waivers can only be issued if a contractor shows an "exhaustive effort" to avoid Chinese material and has a timeline for weaning itself off such supply.
The Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment.
US rare earths investment has been hindered by persistently low prices for many minerals, which Washington blames on China subsidizing its producers and flooding the market with cheap products, thus making American projects unprofitable.
China has repeatedly said it abides by World Trade Organization rules on global trade and works to ensure stable markets. A representative for the Chinese embassy in Washington had no further comment.
Ucore Rare Metals, a minerals refining startup backed by the Pentagon, has developed a processing technology known as RapidSX that it believes is similar to but faster, cleaner and cheaper than the industry standard solvent extraction.
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