CHICAGO, June 12 (Reuters): The US Department of Agriculture on Thursday cut its US winter wheat crop outlook by 2 per cent from a month earlier as a harsh drought in the Plains cut its hard red winter wheat production view to the lowest since 1957.
US winter wheat production in the 2026/27 season was estimated at 1.030 billion bushels, down from its forecast of 1.048 billion last month and well below last year's winter crop of 1.402 billion bushels, the USDA said in a monthly report.
Production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the United States, was projected to fall to 497 million bushels, down from an outlook for 515 million last month and well below last year's 804-million-bushel crop.
The drop in production has heaped pressure on US farmers already struggling with rising fuel and fertilizer prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and trade disruptions caused by US President Donald Trump's tariff battles.
The wheat harvest is underway in key wheat states including Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, although some farmers, particularly in far western areas of the wheat belt, have found little to no grain to gather.
The USDA rated just 25 per cent of the US winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition in a weekly crop conditions report on Monday, the lowest for this time of year in USDA records dating to 1986.
The USDA projected US wheat supplies at the end of the 2026/27 season at 744 million bushels, down from its May forecast for 762 million. Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, expected end-year supplies to be slightly larger.
Grain traders took USDA's crop adjustments in stride on Thursday as they fell within the ranges of analyst estimates. Benchmark hard red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were up about 0.6 per cent near midday, while soft red winter wheat futures were about 0.3 per cent lower.
The USDA made few changes to its US corn and soybean estimates on Thursday.
US corn ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year were raised by 3 million bushels to 2.145 billion bushels, while 2025/26 soybean ending stocks were unchanged at 340 million bushels.
The USDA lifted its 2025/26 Argentine corn and soybean harvest estimates each by 2 million metric tons from last month, and raised its Brazilian corn crop outlook by 3 million tons.
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