World wheat outlook not as heavy as Chicago price plunge suggests

CHICAGO, Mar 07 (Reuters): Exactly two years ago, Chicago wheat futures stamped all-time highs after top exporter Russia invaded fellow supplier Ukraine, immediately throwing almost 30 per cent of global wheat exports into question.

But on Wednesday, CBOT wheat slipped to its lowest level since August 2020, joining the ranks with corn and soybeans, which last week also notched their lowest prices since late 2020.

In theory, global supply outlooks for wheat are not necessarily bearish, especially compared with those for corn and soybeans, though this wheat storyline clearly remains repetitive and non-threatening in traders' eyes.

US Department of Agriculture estimates suggest 2023-24 global wheat ending stocks will decline for a fourth consecutive season to eight-year lows. Eleven-year lows are on the docket when excluding serial grain stockpiler China from the mix.

Isolating major wheat exporters, stocks-to-use, a measure of supply versus demand, is seen at a three-year low of 14.8 per cent in 2023-24, down from 15.9 per cent in the prior season. The recent 10-year average is about 16.9 per cent.