Ed Crooks and Javier Blas in London
Biofuels will provide only a small proportion of the world's demand for fuel in the next decade, the developed countries' energy watchdog has said in an attempt to reassure Opec that the need for oil will continue to grow.
Claude Mandil, the head of the International Energy Agency, told the Financial Times that, even in the worst-case scenario for the oil cartel, there would be a "dramatic" need for an increase in production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
"Opec has nothing to fear. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, the contribution from biofuels would be very small," Mr Mandil said.
The oil producers' group has become increasingly concerned about efforts in the US and the European Union to cut oil imports.
Opec ministers were appalled by the State of the Union address by President George W. Bush in January, in which he said he wanted to "dramatically reduce our dependence on foreign oil".
However, Mr Mandil said that even in the worst case for Opec, in which consuming countries implemented policies to curb oil consumption, the IEA forecast that global oil demand in 2015 would rise by close to 10m barrels a day, to 94.8m b/d.
Demand for Opec oil would be 38.8m b/d in 2015, up from about 31m b/d today, while biofuels would provide just 3m b/d. If the oil-consuming countries did not put in place those further policies to encourage biofuel production and fuel efficiency, Opec oil demand would be 42m b/d.
In the late 1970s western powers urged Opec to increase urgently its production capacity as oil prices soared. But the same countries invested in energy alternatives, including nuclear power and natural gas, and energy-saving measures.
The result, according to Frédéric Lasserre, of Société Générale in Paris, was that "Opec invested huge amounts of resources in new oil production capacity, just to realise that when it came on line, in the mid 1980s, the demand had evaporated".
Opec is worried now about repeating the mistake. The cartel is committed to increase its oil production through more investment. But it has warned: "As the world needs a security of supply, we need a security of demand."
Opec argues that it is misleading to think the world can wean itself off its need for oil. Abdalla el-Badri, Opec secretary-general, said: "We have no objection to changes in the energy mix but there is not a magic solution for oil."
Opec's initial investment of about $120bn (€89bn, £60bn) to 2012 is already on the way, but a second wave of about $500bn will depend on new demand trends. With consuming countries devoting more resources to nuclear power, biofuels, clean coal and energy efficiency, some observers say Opec is right to be concerned.
"Climate warming will play a key role in the future discussion of western countries' energy mix and, in there, oil is not well placed," said Mr Lasserre.
The potential of the current generation of biofuels is severely constrained by the competition with the food industry for feed stocks such as corn and wheat.
"As the biofuel industry is set up today, there are pretty clear limits to it," said Andrew Shepherd-Barron, an alternative energy expert at KBC Peel Hunt.
"In about five years you have the possibility that we could make biofuels in a completely different way, from cellulosic ethanol or algae. But those technologies are unproven."
Even if there is a breakthrough to those "second-generation" biofuels, Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy, estimates they might displace only up to 4 per cent of world oil demand in the next decade. But even a marginal change could have a powerful impact on the oil price.
Biofuels no threat to Opec, says IEA
FE Team | Published: June 23, 2007 00:00:00 | Updated: February 01, 2018 00:00:00
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