Continued falling rate of growth in agriculture and industry sectors could cause continuation of decline in GDP in the current fiscal year, Unnayan Onneshan, an independent think-tank, says in its current issue of the Bangladesh Economic Update, reports UNB.
Pointing out that the rate of growth in agriculture came down from 5.24 per cent in fiscal 2009-10 to 5.13 per cent, 3.11 per cent and 2.17 per cent in 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 respectively, the multi-disciplinary research organisation anticipated that the rate might reach as low as 2.09 per cent in fiscal 2013-14, if such trend persists.
It also observed that the manufacturing sector might see a further decline in rate of growth than the preceding year and the business as usual scenario project a 6.02 per cent rise in the current fiscal.
The manufacturing sector has been undergoing a declining rate of growth since the fiscal 2010-11. While in fiscal 2010-2011, the rate of growth in manufacturing sector was 9.45 per cent, the rate decreased to 9.37 per cent and 9.34 per cent in 2011-12 and 2012-13 respectively.
The rate of growth in GDP has declined from 6.71 per cent in 2010-11 to 6.23 per cent in 2011-12 and then to 6.03 per cent in 2012-13, which might fall below the decadal average of 6.0 per cent in 2013-14, the Unnayan Onneshan projected.
Referring to the declining trend in growth in agriculture sector, the Unnayan Onneshan attributed this to gradual loss of cultivable land, lack of invention, adoption and dissemination of new technology, and lack of sufficient support for agricultural research and extension, resulting from lack of proper policy support.
It pointed out that the falling trend of growth in manufacturing sector can be ascribed to unavailability of infrastructural facilities, recent hiccups in garment sector, constraints originating from limited size of the domestic market, instability in property rights, and missing of institutions.
The think tank also urged publication of regular and credible statistics, and points out non-availability of Quantum Index of Industrial Production (QIP) since November, 2013, though the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is supposed to publish this on a monthly basis.
