BENGALURU, Apr 11 (Reuters): India's retail inflation likely sped up to a 16-month high of 6.35 per cent in March, well above the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance band for a third straight month, in part due to a sustained rise in food prices, a Reuters poll found.
The full effect of the spike in crude oil and global energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February is not expected to appear in consumer prices until April as the pass-through to consumers at fuel pumps was delayed.
The April 4-8 Reuters poll of 48 economists suggested inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose to 6.35 per cent in March on an annual basis, from 6.07 per cent in February. That would be the highest reading since November 2020.
Forecasts for the data, due for release on April 12 around 1200 GMT, ranged between 6.06 per cent and 6.50 per cent. None expected it to fall under 6 per cent, the top end of the RBI's tolerance band.
"We expect headline inflation to have accelerated to 6.30 per cent y/y as food prices edged higher in sequential terms after a three-month decline until February," said Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ, referring to the seasonal pattern in monthly changes in food prices.
Food prices likely pushed India inflation to 16-mth high
FE Team | Published: April 11, 2022 23:42:00
Food prices likely pushed India inflation to 16-mth high
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