Global growth may slow further in Q4: WTO

GENEVA, Nov 28 (Reuters): Global growth in merchandise trade is likely to slow further this quarter, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said, as it published a quarterly indicator showing declines in all seven of the drivers of trade that it tracks.

The WTO's quarterly trade outlook indicator showed a reading of 98.6, the lowest since October 2016, reflecting a further loss of momentum since August, when the index was at 100.3.

A reading below 100 signals below-trend growth in trade.

The indicator is based on seven drivers - merchandise trade volume in the previous quarter, export orders, international air freight, container port throughput, car production and sales, electronic components and agricultural raw materials.

In the latest reading, electronic components plunged to 93.3 from 102.2 in the previous quarter, while agricultural raw materials slumped to 97.2 from 100.1 and export orders slid to 96.6 from 97.2 in August.

World trade growth has struggled to outpace economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008, ending a long streak in which trade increased at roughly double the rate of global GDP.

Trade appeared to be reviving last year when it grew by 4.7 per cent, prompting cheery forecasts in April of a further 4.4 per cent rise this year and 4.0 per cent in 2019.