REZAUL KARIM
A top state intelligence agency has issued a detailed warning about a significant threat to the stability of the essential commodities market ahead of Ramadan.
It alleges a coordinated attempt by "hyper-profit-seeking and dishonest businessmen" to engineer an artificial crisis through hoarding and market manipulation, potentially placing enormous pressure on consumers and damaging the government's credibility.
Prepared by the National Security Intelligence (NSI), a report in this regard has been submitted to the Chief Adviser's Office and the Ministry of Commerce, calling for immediate and coordinated action to prevent severe market disruption in the coming weeks.
The entity's review paints a system vulnerable to both domestic and external shocks and recommends immediate, coordinated government intervention to avert a major price surge during the fasting month.
Commerce ministry officials said they had already taken the required measures to prevent potential instability.
"We have taken all necessary steps to ensure stable prices and supply of key essentials, including edible oil, sugar, onions, chickpeas and dates," a senior ministry official said.
He added that the country currently holds sufficient stocks, with additional consignments already in the pipeline.
Demand for edible oil, sugar, lentils, chickpeas, onions and dates rises sharply during Ramadan, while Bangladesh - except for onions - remains heavily dependent on imports.
The NSI warned that such reliance, coupled with the dollar shortage, port delays, weak market monitoring and global price volatility, could expose the market to heightened risks in the coming weeks.
The agency observed that profit-driven traders often attempt to destabilise the market before Ramadan by hoarding goods and engineering shortages, creating reputational risks for the government if action is not taken early.
While lentils and onions have shown negative import trends, the overall supply situation for Ramadan is expected to remain manageable, the report noted.
It added that significant demand for lentils and chickpeas will require fresh imports. Onion prices, already elevated due to limited supply and farm-level shortages, are expected to remain firm until December unless import restrictions are eased or local output improves.
The report also highlighted that key essentials such as dates and sugar carry high duty and tax burdens, up to 57.2 per cent, while the assessable value for dates exceeds actual transaction prices.
Sugar imports face fixed duties of Tk 3,000 per metric tonne for unrefined and Tk 6,000 for refined sugar, potentially discouraging importers and raising the risk of shortages.
Several commodities are already facing pressure, it warned.
Bottled soybean oil remains within government-fixed rates, but loose soybean and palm oil are selling Tk 4.0-10 above official prices due to reduced dealer commissions and import challenges.
The NSI flagged a possible supply crunch and panic-driven price spike at the start of Ramadan.
International sugar prices have remained stable at US$ 308 per tonne for unrefined and $ 410 per tonne for refined sugar. Domestically, sugar is selling at Tk 105-110 per kg, though slight increases may occur ahead of Ramadan and Eid.
Lentils remain stable at Tk 105-108 for thick grain and Tk 150-160 for thin grain, though an additional 0.32 million tonnes will be required.
Chickpeas are selling at Tk 105-110 per kg, with 0.136 million tonnes needed to meet Ramadan demand.
Onions are retailing at Tk 115-120 per kg and may remain high until imports resume, although early local varieties such as Murikata and Hali are expected to offer some relief.
Dates are currently priced at Tk 250-350 per kg, with manipulation risks heightened due to higher assessment values.
The report further points to systemic vulnerabilities, including winter gas shortages affecting mills, dollar scarcity hindering the opening of letters of credit, and persistent port clearance delays.
Retail-level profiteering, panic buying and banking exposure limits also continue to restrict importer capacity. Although the Bangladesh Bank has instructed banks to reduce LC margins, the agency stressed that strict monitoring remains essential.
To stabilise the market, the NSI recommended temporary reductions in VAT, customs duties and assessment values for Ramadan-related imports; expedited port clearance; relaxed banking exposure limits with adequate dollar allocation; uninterrupted gas and electricity supply to mills; strengthened multi-agency coordination; intensified monitoring to prevent hoarding; expanded TCB and OMS operations; wider fair-price sales of protein items; and public awareness campaigns to discourage panic buying.
The agency concluded that swift, coordinated action across government bodies is essential to ensure stable prices and uninterrupted availability of essential commodities during the upcoming holy month of Ramadan.
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