TOKYO/AKITA, Japan, Jun 19 (Reuters): Confidence of Japanese manufacturers held steady in June while the service-sector mood rebounded from the prior month, an encouraging sign for the economy as it tries to hold its ground in the face of soft exports and weakening consumption.
The readings in Thursday's Reuters Tankan poll - which strongly correlates with the Bank of Japan's key tankan quarterly survey - reinforce policymakers' confidence that the world's third-largest economy can weather the pain of a recent national sales tax increase.
Still, the BOJ may face renewed pressure for additional stimulus if the weakness in exports persist, threatening to derail a recovery which kicked in last year following near two decades of economic stagnation.
In a speech on Thursday that underscored some of the uncertainties ahead, BOJ board member Yoshihisa Morimoto warned of risks to the export outlook as demand in emerging Asian markets fail to gather momentum.
He said there were "both downside and upside risks" to the BOJ's projection that exports will rebound, depending on how overseas economies perform.
"We must continue to scrutinise the outlook for emerging economies, as well as developments in Europe's debt problem and the US economy," Morimoto told business leaders in Akita, northeastern Japan.
His comments follow data on Wednesday which showed Japan's exports fell for the first time in more than a year, hit by a drop in shipments to Asia and the United States.
Some market players worry that the hit from the April 1 tax increase to 8 per cent from 5 per cent and weak shipments could prove bigger than expected, squandering the progress made over the last year thanks to Tokyo's massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Still, Morimoto stuck to the central bank's upbeat view on the economy, saying it is likely to continue recovering moderately with the pain from the tax hike on household spending seen receding around summer.
The Reuters Tankan backs Morimoto's confidence, with manufacturers' morale seen improving in September, while the service-sector mood is expected to worsen but hover at relatively high levels.
The monthly poll of 400 major manufacturers and service-sector firms, of which 260 replied during the June 2-16 period, suggests that the BOJ's tankan due July 1 may show the impact of the April tax hike is limited.
That would be encouraging to the central bank, which has indicated it is willing to look through short term dips in growth without the need for additional stimulus.
"Firm readings reflect steady earnings at listed firms. Non-manufacturers seem to be more affected by the tax hike, but the pullback in demand has bottomed out," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist, Itochu Economic Research Institute.
