The July 2024 uprising, while it raised hopes for political change, also had significant economic implications. The aftermath of the uprising has created new expectations in Bangladesh's political landscape. Ordinary citizens believed that political change would soon translate into improvements in their daily lives. But one year later, the picture of the real economy is sobering. The recent national survey by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC), which covered more than 8,000 households nationwide, clearly shows that while politics may have changed, economic hardship has not.
Average monthly household income now stands at Tk 32,685, which, adjusted for inflation, is effectively stagnant or even lower than in 2022. Expenditures, meanwhile, are nearly the same or higher, averaging Tk 32,615. This means most families are running monthly deficits. The situation is most alarming for the bottom 40 per cent of households, whose expenditures exceed their incomes. The result is growing indebtedness and depleted savings. Many families now rely on loans to cover basic necessities like food and healthcare, leaving little for productive investment. This debt-driven survival strategy, over time, weakens the country's growth potential and creates a "debt trap economy" at the household level.
Bangladesh has long been praised for its success in reducing poverty, but the PPRC survey reveals a reversal. Around 27.9 per cent of households have again fallen below the upper poverty line, compared to 18.7 per cent in 2022. Within this, 9.35 per cent of households are now in extreme poverty-nearly double the share from two years ago. This rise in poverty is not just an economic setback; it is a threat to social stability. Urban middle-class families are being squeezed by inflation, while rural poor households are sinking back into chronic deprivation. The outcome is the emergence of a fragile middle class and a sharp feminisation of poverty, as women-headed households and female workers are disproportionately vulnerable.
Inequality is also deepening. The national expenditure Gini coefficient has risen to 0.436; in urban areas, it has reached an alarming 0.532. Income gaps between urban and rural areas, unequal access to education and healthcare, and the persistently low participation of women in the labour market are widening the divide. This trajectory is not just an economic injustice-it also weakens democracy itself, since economic inequality often translates into unequal political influence.
Employment figures add to the concern. While 52 per cent of adults reported working in the week before the survey, 38 per cent of them were underemployed-working less than 40 hours a week. Nearly half of workers are self-employed, often in low-productivity informal activities. Female labour force participation remains at just 26 per cent. Employment must not be judged as a "numbers game" but by its quality. New jobs are being created, but many are precarious, low-income, and lacking security. Unless employment creation is restructured toward higher productivity and inclusivity, the promise of Bangladesh's demographic dividend will fade.
Food and health insecurity are worsening. More than 12 per cent of the poorest households reported skipping meals at least one day in the last week, while protein consumption has fallen sharply. At the same time, 51 per cent of households have at least one member who is chronically ill. Healthcare costs are becoming a primary driver of poverty. Economists often treat health expenditures as "non-productive costs," but in reality, they function as economic shocks-reducing income, draining savings, and forcing households into debt. Health must therefore be treated not just as a social sector but also as an economic sector.
One of the most striking findings is the vulnerability of the "middle" strata. Around 18 per cent of households sit just above the poverty line but below the median income. They are one illness, one price hike, or one job loss away from sliding back into poverty. This fragile middle is essential for economic stability, yet it currently lacks social protection or targeted policy attention. If the group collapses, Bangladesh risks losing the backbone of its consumer base and its social cohesion.
Yet, not everything is bleak. Remittances continue to provide a lifeline for many families, with remittance-receiving households reporting average monthly receipts of nearly Tk 30,000. Consumer markets remain strong, with average annual household expenditure exceeding Tk 625,000. Digital adoption is expanding rapidly, with 74 per cent of households now using smartphones. This creates new opportunities for e-commerce, digital payments, and online education. If the government and the private sector can collaborate to harness digital technologies for farmers and small entrepreneurs, it could lay the foundation for inclusive growth.
So what is to be done? Immediate action is crucial. Stabilising food prices through open market sales and targeted subsidies, expanding social safety nets for the bottom 40 per cent, and providing healthcare subsidies are urgent measures that can alleviate the current hardships and stabilise the economy. These immediate measures should be complemented by medium-term measures, such as establishing a Household Economy Monitoring Cell to track poverty, food insecurity, and employment in real-time, and strengthening education continuity grants to prevent school dropout among children from poor households. Finally, long-term reforms are needed to reorient the economy toward labour-intensive and inclusive growth, spread investment to reduce regional inequality, and ensure women's access to training, credit, and markets.
Additionally, two urgent steps require priority. First, universal health insurance must be ensured, so that health costs-the leading driver of poverty-are no longer borne solely by households. Without this, escaping poverty will remain nearly impossible. A state-supported health insurance scheme is the only sustainable way to protect household economies. Second, e-commerce and digital skills training should be expanded to include young and educated individuals. The Hi-Tech Parks established under the previous government have essentially become failed projects. These must be revived through proper activation and transformed into hubs of youth employment and entrepreneurship. In this way, technology-driven job creation can open a new horizon for Bangladesh's economy.
The July uprising raised public expectations, but the economy has yet to meet them. Families remain trapped in cycles of debt, poverty, and uncertainty. Bangladesh must now look beyond GDP growth figures and put household security at the centre of development. The real economy is about money for food, healthcare, and school fees. If these remain uncertain, political change will not be sustainable. Bangladesh has the resilience, the remittance flows, and the digital capacity to chart a different path. But the time for bold, household-centred policy is now. Without it, the dream of inclusive development may remain unfulfilled.
Md Tanjil Hossain is Associate Professor of Economics, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University Trishal, Mymensingh, Bangladesh. tanjileconu@gmail.com
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