Afghanistan votes on its future

The coverage on the impending Afghan presidential elections has been filled with death and chaos - the tragic shooting at the Serena hotel where an international election monitor was killed, the shocking attack on the Afghan Election Commission's headquarters, the killing of a provincial council candidate and the news that several international monitoring groups are pulling out.

These tragedies, however, shift the focus from the major news in Afghanistan this week: Election fever has gripped the nation. I hear from Afghans as well as many foreigners now working in Afghanistan that the excitement about the April 05 presidential election is palpable and encouraging.

If this election goes relatively smoothly, it will mark the first democratic handover of power in Afghan history. Potential large-scale fraud and violence will be substantial obstacles to overcome, but there are also some positive signs. Voters, observers and security personnel are gearing up with a mixture of enthusiasm and trepidation.

WHY BE OPTIMISTIC? Civil society has begun to blossom in many parts of Afghanistan after decades of repression and near-constant war. Bearded men pumped their fists in the air during election rallies, others danced in dusty fields at political gatherings while volunteers served lunch and tea. Millions of Afghans watched the candidates' heated debates on television

One key accelerator of civic participation was the National Solidarity Program. To get funding for village projects under the program, tens of thousands of villages were required to elect local councils to decide how the money would be spent, and many women now serve as leaders of these councils. The flawed parliamentary and presidential elections in 2009 also showed many young Afghans what can happen if they are not engaged - and they seem grittily determined to flaunt Taliban violence and vote.

The Afghan media covered the campaigns non-stop, and candidates were actively campaigning and debating, rather than focusing on rigging votes, as they might have in the past.

The Afghan Election Commission has been surprisingly well-organised during this campaign, according to U.S. sources familiar with its work. They were ahead of schedule on key tasks such as organising poll monitors, sending ballots to provinces and organising security at polling stations. The international community provided funding and local technical advice.

Though most media attention was focused on international observers, I know from personal experience as an election monitor in Pakistan how important national observers are as well. Two independent monitoring groups deployed approximately 10,000 to 15,000 national observers at polling sites around the country and the various political factions planned to marshal tens of thousands more.  These constant eyes on voting by all parties involved made fraud more difficult.

International observers added an important second layer of neutrality to the election. Before the violence, there were plans for only 200 foreign monitors. Their partial withdrawal (roughly 80 reportedly remain) did not have a decisive impact.

This positive view is not meant to minimise the massive challenges that surround this election. They include:

VIOLENCE AND SECURITY:  The Taliban launched a concerted effort to disrupt the elections through violence and they unleashed spectacular suicide attacks. Afghans responded with defiance and resolutely planned to vote. To protect voters, more than 380,000 army, police and international forces worked to secure the elections, and more than 13,000 women also helped with security to boost gender participation.

A MOTLEY CREW:  The three frontrunners in the presidential election - Zalmai Rassoul, Abdullah Abdullah, and Ashraf Ghani - are well-educated, Western-friendly, experienced administrators. Six of the other candidates or their running mates, however, are former warlords.

These warlords, men like Abdul Rasul Sayyaf and Rashid Dostum, were ruthless killers in the 1990s civil war - but they also helped defeat the Taliban in 2001-2. They have all now pledged to support the national government, and declared their commitment to working with the West, and to signing the security agreement with Washington.

They even talk enthusiastically about women's rights. Yet how they will act in office or as power-brokers during a run-off election remains to

be seen.

FRAUD:  No one should be under any illusion that this election will be entirely "free and fair." In a desperately poor country, a few dollars or just a free meal can buy a vote. There are accounts of virtually all candidates distributing such "bakshish."

We must accept that this election will be far from perfect. Afghans will likely tolerate small-scale fraud, but they may resort to violent protest if they believe a candidate without broad support has maneuvered into office.

The key to Afghanistan's long-term stability will be a peaceful transfer of power to a new president selected by the electorate - and that president's ability to work with the losers in the election to build a new Afghanistan. This is the moment for the international community to step back, be patient but engaged, and let Afghans decide their destiny.

The writer served in the US State Department from 2005 to 2007, working on policy for Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. She is now a principal, with Condoleezza Rice, Stephen Hadley and Robert Gates,

in RiceHadleyGates LLC, a strategic consulting firm. She

is also a lecturer at Stanford University.